Start of September

Hello everyone, 

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the global food oil market. 

🌻 Sunflower Oil

Ukraine started sunflower and soybean harvesting in late Aug 2025. APK-Inform has cut its sunflower crop forecast to just over 13M tonnes. Yields are sharply lower – standing at 0.8 t/ha vs 1.2–1.6 t/ha last year. Harvesting is delayed in many regions, with forward offers scarce.

After ~270k tonnes of SFO shipped in July, August saw the total veg oil exports at 211.2k tonnes (mainly sunflower).

Markets are quiet with subdued demand. Massive drone attacks on Chornomorsk have temporarily cut power and blocked vessel traffic, delaying Odessa entries by 2 days.

Prices:

– RBD SFO as low as $1,300 exw

– Bottled oil: $1.38/litre and up

– CSFO buying for CPT POC: $1,215–1,225/MT (Sep) and $1,205–1,210 (Oct)

– Turkey: $1,250/MT CIF Oct vs sellers $1,285 Nov

– Russia Oct CIF: $1,275–1,280/MT, no trades

India demand stays firm, but more Black Sea offers may pressure October prices. Ukraine SFS bids rose to ₴25.5k–26.7k/t CPT as crushers defend margins. EU port support remains.

Russia expects a record SFS harvest in 2025/26 – at 17.5–18M tonnes. The country’s RBD SFO Oct offers are at $1,350 CIF GCC.

🌱 Rapeseed / Canola

Euronext Nov fell slightly (by €3) – to €462.5/t. Canada’s output estimated at 19.94M tonnes, weighing on prices amid weak Chinese demand.

Ukraine rapeseed offers at $1,100 EXW find limited interest, with bids near $1,050. Russia-origin CIF is below $1,100 for China.

China demand remains sluggish despite delegations to Canada/US, with pre-school season purchases weaker than expected. Rapeseed meal offers are at ~$200/t EU border.

India–UAE pact: canola oil duty cut to 8% this year, reaching zero by Apr 2026. This will pressure Indian mustard farmers and weigh on rapeseed meal in GCC and beyond.

🌸 Soybeans

Soy complex is mixed: soy/meal is supported by US–China trade hopes, while soy oil is weaker with soft crude/palm. US soyoil stocks are above 1.2M tonnes, adding pressure.

Brazil’s 2025/26 planting has started. There are good rains in RS/Santa Catarina, but dryness in Paraná may delay planting and cut supply. This risk supports CBOT futures and Brazil export premiums.

India’s soybean prices recovered after reports of heavy rain damage in major states. Output loss risk is at 5–10%, possibly more if rains continue. Crop estimates are at ~11M tonnes. Market volatility is high, and soy oil is spiked.

Prices:

– Ukraine FCA CDSBO: $1,100 and up

– Russia CDSBO: $1,060 DAP Latvia border

Meanwhile, Egypt shows slow buying and signs of local shortage.

🌴 Palm Oil

KLC opened higher after Indonesia raised export tax. Malaysian stocks are up ~10% in August, capping upside near 4,550–4,600.

GCC: Olein landed at ~$1,200, RBD palm CP10. Gap is at $100+ vs RBD soy, and $200+ vs RBD SFO. RBD canola at $1,260–1,280 looks to be the best alternative, but transit takes 40–60 days.

Medium-term support comes from biofuel expansion. Near-term outlook is mixed: higher crude and shifting export taxes vs rising stocks. Market eyes Q4 2025–Q1 2026 deficit. Political uncertainty in China–US/Canada/Australia relations adds volatility.

Also, just in: Ukraine signed Law No. 13157 imposing a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed effective Oct 1, 2025.

Thank you for your attention.