Mid february

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🌴 Palm Oil

Palm oil prices may fall below 4,000 ringgit/t (~ $1,100) due to competition from cheaper soybean oil from South America. To maintain demand, especially from India, palm oil has to be more price-competitive. Indonesian production is expected to remain flat in 2026 at ~50M tons, limiting supply growth.

Overall, palm oil faces strong price pressure.

🌱 Soybean & Soyoil Complex

Futures are steady, while physical markets soften. Premiums shrink as Argentina and Brazil offer competitive discounts, pressuring global prices. The market may be near a short-term top, with downside risk rising if physical demand does not improve.

Global soy output is revised to 428.18 MMT (from 425.68 MMT). South American soymeal remains discounted to CBOT, showing weak physical demand despite stable futures.

Black Sea origins, particularly Russia, stay competitive via container shipments. Ukraine’s CDSBO mostly flows to EU biodiesel and feed. India is active in RBD CDSBO exports.

China’s veg oil market is under pressure as palm and rapeseed oils fall sharply and soybean oil is weaker, too. However, shrinking soybean meal stocks support crushing demand.

🌻 Sunflower Oil

Prices remain firm due to tight Black Sea supplies:

– Ukraine ~$1,340–1,345/MT FOB,

– Russia ~$1,300–1,305/MT.

European origin trades at a premium.

Ukraine prices:

– FCA ~$1,260–1,280/MT;

– CPT ~$1,290–1,300/MT.

– RBD SFO ~$1,400/MT;

– RBD HOSO ~$1,700/MT.

USDA outlook shows global SFO production tight, as low stocks support prices. Ukraine’s lower seed production continues to firm the market. Ukraine port prices reach UAH 30,000/MT ($815) on limited farmer stocks and strong export/processing demand.

There are also increased flows of SFS from Argentina to Bulgaria and Turkey for crushing.

🌾 Canola Market

Despite reduced exports to China, Canada maintains overall exports by shifting shipments to Japan, Mexico, and Europe. Strong domestic crushing and export of value-added products stabilize supply-demand balance.

Outlook is resilient, supported by solid processing margins and diversified exports, though global demand and trade policies remain key risks.

📊 Macro Factors

US Dollar Index is stable. Malaysian ringgit slightly weaker, supporting palm oil exports. Euro is stable with mild recovery. Crude oil (WTI & Brent) is steady, supporting biofuel-linked demand.

Overall, macro conditions are neutral to mildly supportive. Markets are expected to stay balanced, range-bound, and highly policy-driven.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!