Current price levels already reflect elevated geopolitical risks and high energy costs, which continue to underpin the broader vegetable oil complex. Importantly, demand for vegetable oils remains resilient rather than declining, providing a floor to the market despite ongoing volatility.

Slightly stronger USD adds mild pressure on commodity prices. Stronger ringgit reduces palm export competitiveness. Weaker euro weighs on EU demand. Crude oil remains elevated, providing strong support via biodiesel demand.

The market is entering a correction phase, as momentum slows after the recent rally. Palm oil remains the key driver, supported by high crude oil prices and favorable logistics to core markets. In the US, weaker biodiesel demand is reducing overall support for the vegoil complex, while logistics in the GCC remain tight amid elevated freight rates and uncertain insurance costs. Overall, the market is macro-supported but structurally softer, increasing the risk of a near-term c