End of March

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the vegetable oil market.

🌱 Soy Complex

The CBOT market showed steady upward momentum on March 20–26, with ongoing pressure from ample supply and weak demand.

– Soybeans (May): 11.61 → 11.73 $/bu (~ +5 $/MT)

– Soymeal (May): 328 → 322 $/st (~ 361 → 355 $/MT)

– Soyoil (May): 65.5 → 68.0 c/lb, equivalent to 1444 → ~1500 $/MT (+~55 $/MT)

Sustaining soyoil above 68 c/lb would open room for further upside.

FOB soyoil – Argentina:

– May: 1162 → 1191 $/MT

– June: 1142 → 1164 $/MT

– Basis: down to ~-1500

Supply fundamentals remain supportive:

– Crush is down ~27% → lowest levels in years

– Production is down 28% YoY

Falling stocks raise deficit risks, while slow farmer selling limits soybean availability, supporting crush margins (bullish for soyoil).

Policy and energy support: Raised biodiesel blending flexibility (up to 20%) means upside demand potential, while firm crude oil prices sustain strong biodiesel economics.

FOB soyoil – Brazil

– May: 1169 → 1213 $/MT

– June: 1160 → 1181 $/MT

– Basis: -1250 → -1430

Brazil continues to dominate global exports (~42% share). Structural demand remains strong due to stable U.S. mandates and Brazil’s long-term biodiesel expansion from B15 to B20.

– Strong backwardation: Apr/May +42$/MT, Apr/June +69 $/MT → tight prompt supply

– Competitiveness shift: soyoil vs palm moved from a +50 premium in April to a -23 discount in June

– CPO parity: soyoil vs CPO is near 0, meaning full price convergence

🌻 Sunflower Oil

Sunflower prices remain broadly stable amid tighter supply.

– Ukraine's smaller crop (down ~8%) leads to tighter availability at ~1330–1335 $/MT

– Russia's prices are under pressure, but high export duty provides support at ~1315–1325 $/MT

– Europe trades at a premium of ~1450–1460 $/MT

– Argentina is the most competitive origin for Apr–May, trading at ~1280–1310 $/MT

India sunflower oil imports have seen a sharp decline in 2026:

– January: -23%

– February: -45% to -51%

– May shipment indication is at ~1450 $/MT CIF India

CIF Mersin market

– Black Sea offers are at 1390–1415 $/MT

– Buyer bids are at 1380–1385 $/MT (April)

Export duties / domestic markets

– Russia sunoil export duty (April) is at ~202 $/MT (up ~80 $/MT over a month)

– RBD SFO Ukraine trades at ~1440 $/MT exw

– Russia offers stand at ~116 RUB/kg (~ 1410 $/MT exw)

🛢️ China, Canola & Rapeseed

China (DCE) price indications:

– Soyoil rebounded rom ~1240 to 1257 $/MT

– Palm oil strengthened from 1378 to 1413 $/MT

– Soybeans slightly weakened from ~690 to 659 $/MT

– Soymeal eased from ~435 to 425 $/MT

Canola prices are firm at ~726 → 729 $/MT. The New U.S. biofuel rules are supportive. Canadian feedstocks is expected to receive full RINs equivalency, while other origins may receive ~50% RINs from 2028. So, there is a structural long-term advantage for Canadian canola oil demand.

India mustard prices are rising on low arrivals and strong demand, with mustard oil supported by elevated global vegoil prices.

🌴 Palm Oil

Palm oil prices stabilized after the recent rally.

– RBD palmolein FOB trades at ~1175–1195 $/MT

– CPO FOB is at ~1220–1235 $/MT

Indonesia remains slightly discounted versus Malaysia.

Demand-side pressure persists, with weak buying interest from India and other price-sensitive markets. Meanwhile, Europe CIF prices corrected slightly, signaling softer demand.

New risk factor: Early forest fires in Indonesia and El Niño risk raise potential supply disruption, which is bullish for palm oil prices in the mid-term.

🌍 Macro Factors

Slightly stronger USD adds mild pressure on commodity prices. Stronger ringgit reduces palm export competitiveness (slightly bearish), while weaker EUR weighs on EU demand. Crude oil remains elevated (~95–105 $/bbl), providing strong support via biodiesel demand.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!