Mid March

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🌱 Soy Complex — Oil Takes the Lead

The soybean complex has shifted into a clearly oil-led rally, with soybean oil outperforming the rest of the oilseed space.

CBOT May soybean oil futures advanced from ~66.6 c/lb to above 67.4 c/lb, pushing prices close to $1,480–1,490/MT. Soybean meal remains relatively flat at ~$317–320/MT, confirming a clear expansion in oilshare.

Soybeans have followed the move higher, though modest compared to oil.

In the physical market, South American FOB values trade at a notable discount to CBOT. Argentina May basis is around –1,520 pts, with FOB values near $1,150/MT. Brazil shows a similar structure.

Rapid expansion of the U.S. biodiesel and renewable diesel sector remain a key structural driver. USDA expects industrial soybean oil consumption to reach 6.35 MMT in 2025/26 — up sharply from 4.05 MMT five years ago.

China’s soybean demand remains solid (imports expected at ~112 MMT), while Brazil continues to dominate global supply thanks to competitive pricing. Same time, disruptions in Brazilian export inspections and temporary shipment pauses may create short-term shifts in global trade flows.

U.S. soybean meal production continues to expand, supported by strong domestic livestock demand and growing crush capacity.

🌻 Sunflower Oil — Black Sea Pressures and Shifting Flows

Black Sea sunflower oil prices are stable at ~$1,325–1,350 FOB. The Ukrainian CPT market is weaker, at ~ $1,280–1,285. RBD SFO supply is expanding, with FCA offers near $1,380–1,400.

India CIF offers are around $1,420, with a sharp increase in bulk freight costs from the Black Sea (up to $120+/MT). The country has also sharply reduced sunflower oil imports, shifting demand elsewhere.

China’s sunflower oil market is currently in a temporary deadlock, with weak trading activity and minimal import interest as of 15 March 2026.

European prices remain elevated near $1,480–1,490, while Argentina’s new-crop offers at ~$1,290–1,300 could increase competition in the coming months. However, the second shipment of Argentine sunflower seeds failed EU pesticide standards in Varna and was redirected to biofuel use instead of the food market. Around 14 vessels are currently heading to Bulgaria.

Ukrainian exports continue to decline, reflecting tighter Black Sea export flows. Since September, sunflower oil exports have been dropping by ~ 200,000 tons month-on-month.

Meanwhile, Russia and Kazakhstan report higher carry-over stocks alongside stable sunflower oil production.

🌾 Rapeseed & Canola — Strong Oils, Firm Futures

Canadian canola futures have moved sharply higher, with May contracts rising from ~660 to above 730 CAD/t. The rally reflects strength across vegetable oil markets and firm biodiesel demand.

Global rapeseed production is projected to increase, with Canada remaining the key supplier. This supports higher crush activity and stronger export flows in the coming seasons.

🌴 Palm Oil — The Primary Market Driver

Palm oil continues to drive the broader vegetable oil complex higher. BMD palm oil futures rise almost all the time, reaching ~$1,150–1,160/t, while physical CPO FOB Malaysia has moved toward ~$1,230–1,250/t.

India’s palm oil imports have increased, while rising import costs for China are also supporting global demand and keeping the market firm.

🚢 Macro & Logistics — Rising Costs and Elevated Risk

The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen while many local currencies weaken, making veg oil imports more expensive. Market behavior is now close to historical stress patterns, with oil up ~47% and equities down ~5%.

The Iran–US–Israel conflict is keeping geopolitical risk elevated, as logistics to the Middle East are a major uncertainty — freight costs have already increased 2× in some cases and up to 4× in others, with many shipping lines declaring force majeure for Gulf ports.

Palm oil shipments are increasingly redirected to Fujairah as the first discharge point. Due to congestion, demurrage, and logistics disruptions, costs have risen by at least +$200/MT versus normal levels.

Overall, logistics costs to most destinations continue to rise daily — whether due to higher ocean freight, inland transport expenses, or record diesel prices.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!