Late April

Hello everyone,Please enjoy a fresh overview of the vegetable oil market.

🌱 Soybean Complex

CBOT Soybeans (May 2026) declined from 11.67 to 11.63 $/bu during April 14–16, remaining within 11.50–11.80 $/bu. The market stays range-bound with mild downside pressure. Weak global demand limits upside, while biofuel-linked demand and Chinese buying continue to underpin the downside.

Soymeal (May 2026) is flat at 331–333 $/st. Feed demand remains subdued, as Argentine supply risks have not translated into price strength.

Soyoil (May 2026) is the strongest leg of the complex, rising from 65.6 to 69.3 c/lb, equivalent to ~1466 → 1528 USD/MT.

Outperformance is driven by:

– biofuel mandates (EPA outlook)

– elevated energy prices

– tight global vegetable oil balance

South America basis (FOB vs CBOT) continues to weaken. Argentina’s basis widened from -1100 to -1600 pts, with FOB values sliding from ~1237 to 1171 USD/MT. Brazil’s basis weakened from -1100 to -1450 pts, with FOB easing from ~1200 to 1180–1200 USD/MT. Despite stable CBOT prices, physical FOB values are under pressure due to weak export demand and aggressive origin selling.

India CNF market shows deep backwardation and negative basis. CNF values fall from 1300 USD/MT (April) to 1206 USD/MT (OND), while basis ranges between -1450 and -1670 pts. The consistent +15 USD/MT Haldia premium confirms ongoing pressure on physical markets and expected improved supply in H2 as South American flows increase.

Ukraine CDSBO is offered at ~1150 USD/MT ex-factory, with supply available and crushers active. Russia CDSBO trades around ~82 RUB/kg, equivalent to ~1080–1100 USD/MT. Egypt booked ~1280 USD/MT CIF (Ukraine origin). RBD SBO (Ukraine) is offered at ~1300 USD/MT ex-works, while India offers are around 1400 USD/MT FOB.

🌻 Sunflower Oil Complex

Black Sea FOB prices are firm. Ukraine moved from 1350 to 1360 USD/MT, while Russia increased from 1340 to 1350 USD/MT. Tight farmer selling and controlled crush rates keep the market supported.

Ukraine sunflower seed prices are around 32,500 UAH/MT DAP factory incl. VAT (~830 USD/MT). In Russia, higher export duties and a firmer rouble continue to lift USD-denominated export prices.

In Europe, delivered and FOB levels are at 1455–1480 USD/MT, carrying a +100 to +120 USD/MT premium over Black Sea origin. Argentina FOB (May–July) trades at 1290–1300 USD/MT — a -50 to -60 USD/MT discount versus Black Sea, encouraging some buyers to switch origins for cost reasons.

RBD sunflower oil from Ukraine is offered at ~1430 USD/MT ex-works, while India levels are around 1580 USD/MT FOB.

🌴 Palm Oil

BMD palm oil (3rd month Jun/Jul) closed around 4451 MYR (~1126 USD/MT) on April 17, down from ~4495 MYR (~1137 USD/MT) a day earlier. The curve remains soft with limited downside.

RBD palmolein (Malaysia FOB) signals comfortable supply:

– 1165–1175 USD/MT (May–June)

– 1167 USD/MT (JAS)

– 1162–1165 USD/MT (OND).

No supply tightness is currently priced in.

Indonesia FOB remains the key price driver, with ~1145 USD/MT (May) and ~1155 USD/MT (June), trading at a ~20–30 USD/MT discount to Malaysia. CPO is stable but lacks upside. Malaysia trades 1229–1234 USD/MT (April–May), while Indonesia is around ~1225 USD/MT (May).

The laurics segment stays under pressure.

PKO:

– 2040 USD/MT FOB Malaysia (down from 2100+)

– 2290–2300 USD/MT CIF Indonesia

– 2200 USD/MT CIF Rotterdam.

CNO sits near ~2300 USD/MT CIF Rotterdam. Weak oleochemical demand and high absolute prices continue to cap consumption.

🌾 Rapeseed / Canola

Canola futures (Canada) show mild contango, reflecting expectations of adequate supply:

– May 2026 ~710 CAD/MT

– July-26 ~724 CAD/MT

– Nov-26 ~722 CAD/MT

Rapeseed oil (Europe) trades at 1135–1140 EUR/MT FOB Netherlands (~1220–1240 USD/MT). Australian exports remain steady at ~26 MMT annualized, EU production is recovering, and no visible supply tightness is evident.

🌍 Macro & Policy Drivers

Crude oil has softened to ~95 USD/bbl, reducing biodiesel support, while a weaker USD (~98 DXY) provides limited offset for commodities. Geopolitical risks remain elevated, particularly in the Middle East. In the Black Sea, intensified strikes on Ukrainian ports are increasingly disrupting exports and complicating logistics. Elevated freight and logistics costs continue to support delivered prices despite weaker fundamentals.

Russia plans to raise the export duty base for sunflower oil and meal by 10%, potentially as early as May 2026, which is likely to push export prices higher. Indonesia’s move toward a B50 biodiesel mandate remains a key structural bullish factor for the entire vegetable oil complex, while China’s shifting demand patterns and climate risks linked to a potential El Niño add further uncertainty.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!