End of April

Hello everyone,Please enjoy a fresh overview of the vegetable oil market.

🌴 Palm & Lauric Oils

Palm oil posted its first weekly gain in three weeks, rising 3.28%, on higher crude oil prices, stronger biodiesel economics, and ongoing Middle East geopolitical risk. CPO remains closely linked to energy markets, with elevated crude prices continuing to act as the main bullish driver.

MPOC expects palm oil to stay above 4,500 MYR/MT in the near term, underpinned by biodiesel demand, crude strength, and potential El Niño risks.

The physical palm complex also firmed. Malaysian RBD Palmolein FOB moved higher across forward months:

– May around $1,195/MT

– June near $1,200/MT.

The Malaysia–Indonesia spread remains narrow, signaling limited room for aggressive price competition. Lauric oils continue to trade at a high premium. Indonesian CPKO CIF was quoted around $2,270–2,280/MT.

🌾 Rapeseed & Canola

Rapeseed oil Dutch FOB strengthened, with May rising to ~ €1,177/MT, adding support to the wider vegetable oil complex.

Canadian canola futures also recovered strongly:

– May advanced to 725.4 CAD/MT (from 697.9 CAD/MT a week earlier)

– November reached 736 CAD/MT.

China’s rapeseed oil market remains one of the tightest segments globally, with stocks at only ~45% of last year’s levels.

Europe continues to prioritize rapeseed security over palm expansion, keeping rapeseed and canola structurally important for EU pricing. As of mid-April, the EU imported ~ 1.38 – 1.42 M MT of rapeseed/canola from Ukraine, making Ukraine the bloc’s largest supplier with a ~35–36% market share.

🌱 Soybean & Soyoil Complex

CBOT soybeans remained broadly range-bound. May futures eased from around 11.67 to 11.59 $/bu, confirming the lack of strong bullish conviction in the bean market. Soymeal also softened, with May declining toward 320.6 $/st amid weaker feed demand.

The key story remains soyoil resilience. May CBOT soyoil held near 71.0 c/lb (around $1,566–1,580/MT), staying close to recent highs despite softer beans and meal.

South American FOB basis continues to send an important supply signal. Argentina’s basis weakened sharply to around -1,620 to -1,700 points, while FOB values climbed toward $1,205–1,223/MT. Brazil showed a similar pattern, with basis around -1,750 to -1,820 points and FOB near $1,165–1,181/MT.

Weaker basis reflects ample nearby supply and competitive exporter selling. For physical buyers, South America remains attractive, while firm CBOT soyoil prices are keeping the broader price floor elevated and supporting seller offers.

🌻 Sunflower Oil

The sunflower oil complex is entering a transition phase, with short-term Black Sea support colliding with medium-term global supply expansion.

Russia sharply reduced its SFO export duty for May to 4,650 RUB/MT (from 16,222 RUB/MT in April).

This is a clearly bearish policy signal as it:

– improves Russian export competitiveness

– encourages more aggressive FOB offers

– increases nearby Black Sea supply pressure

Current sunoil FOB indications:

– Ukraine ~$1,390–1,400/MT

– Russia ~$1,380 – 1,390/MT

– Europe ~$1,505/MT

– Argentina ~$1,300–1,320/MT

Argentina is moving toward record sunflower oil production, with combined sunoil and soyoil supplies projected up ~25% YoY. Very low domestic biodiesel use implies a larger exportable surplus.

In Ukraine, sunflower seed prices have strengthened to around 33,500 UAH/MT for 50%+ oil content/high-oleic seeds (approximately ~$880/MT), keeping crusher input costs elevated and supporting domestic oil prices.

Russia’s duty cut has already shifted sentiment softer. However, Russian exports remain challenging this season. High sunflower seed prices, duties, and a strong RUB have squeezed crusher margins, forcing some exporters to slow or halt production. RBC analysts see USD/RUB at 75–82 in May, with FX direction highly uncertain. If the RUB weakens, Russian sunoil competitiveness would improve and export volumes could accelerate ahead of the new crop. Combined with Argentina’s larger crop, this could increase downside pressure on global sunflower oil prices.

📉 Bottom Line

Near-term vegetable oil markets remain supported by crude oil, biodiesel demand, and logistics risks. However, growing supply from Argentina, Russia, and the EU new crop is building forward pressure.

Short term: firm. Medium term: more competitive, with higher downside risk unless weather or geopolitics tighten supply again

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!