Early February

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🌻 Sunflower Oil

Sunflower oil prices remain firm after the recent rally, with FOB Ukraine around $1,337–1,340/MT and Russia near $1,295/MT. After testing the $1,350 level, the market has moved into a consolidation phase.

Black Sea supply remains sensitive, with European premiums elevated due to tight seed availability. Demand is stable, though buyers are increasingly price-resistant at higher levels.

Short-term, the market is expected to trade sideways to slightly bullish at $1,300–1,360/MT. Further upside depends on new supply disruptions or stronger demand.

Price indications ⤵️

– CIF Mersin Russian-origin SFO:

~$1,390/MT for February 2026 offer (~$1,375/MT bids)

~ $1,380/MT for March 2026 offer (~ $1,360–1,365/MT bids)

– India ~ $1,395/MT CIF offer

– RBD oil India to GCC ~ $1,560/MT

– Ukraine RBD SFO FCA ~ $1,400/MT, with bottled oil around $1.50/L FCA.

Logistics constraints in Ukraine persist due to insurance restrictions on flexitanks, so major export flows are redirected via Constanta and Gdansk.

🌱 Soybeans & Soyoil

The global soybean market is supported short-term by strong physical demand and healthy crush margins. U.S. exports benefit from buying interest in Asia and Africa, with domestic processing still active.

However, fundamentals are turning more bearish. Record soybean production in Brazil and elevated stocks in Argentina lift global supply, creating mid-term pressure. Slower Chinese imports add to concerns about potential oversupply in 2026.

Soyoil continues to outperform soybeans, supported by biodiesel demand and favorable policy incentives, though this is highly dependent on government mandates and subsidies. Physical premiums stay positive, indicating tight nearby availability, while paper markets lag.

Overall, the soy complex is well supported near term, but rising South American supply and uncertain Chinese demand limit upside and increase correction risks. India’s veg oil imports rose sharply while domestic prices remain firm, with soyoil now overtaking palm oil.

India and the US are moving toward reducing or eliminating tariffs on U.S. soyoil and selected agricultural products. With no clear timeline yet, this could increase U.S. soyoil availability in India and soften import parity over time.

🌴 Palm Oil

Malaysian ringgit has weakened against USD, trading near multi-month lows. This makes Malaysian palm oil more competitive in export markets, supporting FOB exports and helping absorb inventories. Currency weakness is partially offsetting bearish pressure from weak demand and is acting as a stabilizer rather than a growth driver.

If MYR remains weak, exports should stay supported and downside limited, delaying major corrections. A strengthening MYR would likely renew pressure.

Overall, palm oil remains in a consolidation phase, capped by weak demand and competition from soyoil, but supported by currency and exports. The market is expected to remain range-bound in the near term.

🌾 Rapeseed & Seasonal Factors

Global rapeseed production for 2025/26 is forecast at 92.27M tons (+7.3% YoY), led by Canada at around 20M tons (+12% YoY) and pointing to ample supply. China remains highly dependent on Canadian imports, while domestic stocks have declined to around 377k tons, making the March 2026 anti-dumping decision a key price driver.

Despite this, rapeseed oil remains the most competitively priced major veg oil, supported by increasing availability and expanding crushing capacity, particularly in Europe and Ukraine. Weak Chinese demand continues to limit upside.

With Chinese New Year on 15–17 February 2026 and Ramadan in mid-February 2026, seasonal edible oil demand is strengthening. This coincides with ongoing disruptions at Ukraine’s Odessa port, tightening regional supply. Ukraine’s export focus is increasingly shifting toward the EU, leaving soy and palm largely unaffected, while SFO faces direct supply-side pressure and strong price support.

SFO fundamentals remain solid, driven primarily by supply constraints. Volatility is high, and March 2026 is shaping up as a high-risk month due to uncertainty around logistics, demand patterns, and policy developments.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!