END of February

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🫘 Soybean & Soybean Oil Complex

– CBOT Soybean Oil trades at ~61.2–61.6 c/lb (26 February 2026)

The market jumped from below 59 to above 61 c/lb in a few sessions, confirming strong technical momentum and fund participation.

Basis vs CBOT (March shipment, FOB)

– Argentina: -920 points

– Brazil: -950 points

Futures are rallying (>61 c/lb) while FOB basis weakens in both origins.

What this means:

– Physical sellers are increasing hedge coverage

– Crushers/exporters are comfortable offering forward

If CBOT holds above 60–61 c/lb and basis stabilizes, the rally can extend. A pullback toward 58–59 c/lb remains possible if fund buying slows.

Current setup: bullish futures, bearish-to-neutral physical. This is not yet a tight physical market as follow-through depends on real export demand.

Soymeal remains weak, with Argentina and Brazil basis at -6 to -12, reflecting comfortable supply. Strength in the soy complex is clearly oil-led, not meal-supported.

🆚 Inter-oil Spreads & Relative Value

CDSBO vs RBD Olein (Malaysia)

– March premium: +53 → +68 → +75 → +86 USD/ton

– April premium: +20 → +46 → +53 → +62 USD/ton

CDSBO vs Russian SFO

– March discount: -165 → -140 → -168 → -146 USD/ton

– April: ~-168 USD/ton

Key levels to watch:

– Soy vs palm above +90–100 USD/ton → demand switching risk

– Soy vs sunflower below -130 USD/ton → tighter competition

🌍 Regional Fundamentals (Soy & Palm)

Brazil’s soybean output is at 180–181 M tons (near record). Harvest and exports are accelerating, with strong shipments to China.

In United States, exports remain weak versus prior peaks, but domestic crush is strong. Soymeal consumption reached 49.1 M tons. Higher planting intentions and expanding crush capacity add medium-term supply risk.

China’s recent support reflects short-term logistics and customs delays, not a structural deficit.

SBO price indications at Dalian Commodity Exchange:

China:

– May: 1183 → 1199 USD/t

– July: 1175 → 1195 USD/t

Momentum-driven firming continues.

India:

– CPO discount to soydegum (March): -73 → -79 USD/t

– RBD discount to CDSBO (March): -123 → -129 USD/t

Palm remains heavily discounted to soy. China soyoil is strengthening, while India still structurally favors palm.

🌻 Sunflower Oil

The sunflower oil market is tight but no longer panic-driven. Upside looks limited as additional Argentine supply and cautious EU processing cap prices.

Prices:

– India: 1,400–1,415 USD/t CIF (March–April)

– Europe (Six Ports AMJ): ~1,445 USD/t

– Turkey: offers ~1,380, bids ~1,360 USD/t

– RBD SFO FCA: ~1,380 USD/t

– Ukraine FOB peaked at 1,345 USD/t (24–25 February), then slipped to 1,335

– Russia: 1,315 → 1,305 $/t

– Argentina new crop (March–May): 1,375 → 1,320–1,310 USD/t

Up to 400 k tons of SFS may arrive in Bulgaria. If fully crushed, this could yield 155–170 k tons of oil — around 25% of Bulgaria’s domestic crop — easing regional tightness.

EU oilseed crush in January fell to a 12-year low, as SFS crushing dropped by 12.6% over a month.

China’s SFO imports in 2025 fell to ~30% of last year’s 1.58 M tons.

India cut SFO imports by nearly 900 k tons — down to 2.83 M tons.

Overall, sunflower oil is losing demand momentum in Asia.

🌱 Canola / Rapeseed

Canola price indications:

– March: 680.6 CAD/t

– May: 693.0 CAD/t

– July: 703.6 CAD/t

The curve is in carry, reflecting tight supply and steady demand.

Rapeseed oil FOB, Rotterdam:

– March: 1,188 USD/t

– April: 1,174 USD/t

– May: 1,163 USD/t

– June: 1,162 USD/t

The forward curve is easing slightly, pointing to softer nearby demand or better supply visibility. Structurally supported by weather risks in India and steady veg oil demand.

🌴 Palm oil

Indonesia raised its March CPO reference price to 938.87 USD/t, lifting the export tax to 124 USD/t (plus the 10% levy).

Malaysia faces February output down 15–17% m/m.

Bottom line: higher Indonesian export costs and lower Malaysian production tighten regional supply. This is short-term supportive for palm oil prices if export demand holds.

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That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and as always — stay tuned for the next update.