Mid January

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🌻 Sunflower Oil

Since late December 2025, Russia has targeted Ukraine’s vegetable oil plants and ports, disrupting up to 25% of production. With exports constrained, sunflower oil is pushed to multi-year highs, reshaping global trade: Europe relies heavily on Ukraine, while India and Turkey increasingly source from Russia.

The disruption hits Ukraine’s economy hard — lost foreign currency, suspended seed purchases, and halted operations. Operational risks have spiked due to power outages, severe cold weather (–10°C to –15°C), rising insurance costs (up to 4%), and repeated container damage. While seed prices are up, crush margins remain attractive and the real bottleneck is safe export, with storage largely uninsured and shipments proceeding cautiously.

Price levels (FOB):

– Europe: $1,550–1,590

– Ukraine/Russia: $1,330–1,385

– India (CIF): $1,405

– Mersin (Ukrainian origin): $1,400–1,425; Russian CPT: $1,375–1,400

– Ukrainian deep-sea ports: $1,275–1,300

🌱 Soy Oil

Soy oil is firm globally, driven by tight physical supply rather than futures, as spot and near-term offers for Feb – Apr shipments surged above $1,200 per tonne.

Brazil’s record soybean harvest pressures forward curves, but nearby supply remains scarce. In the US, futures rallied on biofuel optimism, but uncertainty over EPA small refinery exemptions limits upside and raises profit-taking risk.

China stocks are mixed:

– Soy and palm remain heavy YoY but easing WoW

– Rapeseed and sunflower are tight, with sunflower down over 50% YoY

Overall, physical availability tightness dominates. Forward supply looks ample, but nearby months stay expensive, keeping the soy complex firm short-term. Corrections could appear once South American flows normalize.

🌾 Rapeseed Oil

Rapeseed oil is supported by potential China – Canada trade deals and a cut in Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola (~15% by March 1), improving demand visibility and trade flows. Some impact is priced in, but sentiment remains firm.

Bottomline: there is strong short-term support, with medium-term still uncertain.

🌴 Palm Oil

Palm oil gains near-term support from strong Malaysian futures (BMD), higher crush demand, and Indonesia’s delayed biodiesel mandate rollout, which front-loaded exports.

Medium-term outlook: Rising palm kernel stocks and ample global supply are expected to cap rallies in 2026 unless demand improves materially.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!