Start of October

Hello everyone, 

It was a pleasure to join the recent Black Sea Oil Conference in Bucharest and especially so – as a speaker. The key focus of the meetup was Ukraine’s new season for veg seeds and export prospects for oil and meal, and it was a great opportunity to connect with other industry leaders in person. 

Now, as for the usual market update:

🌻 Sunflower Seed & Oil Market

In its September report, USDA cut Ukraine’s 2025/26 sunflower crop forecast from 13.5 Mt to12.7 Mt (down 800k tonnes) due to poor weather and lower early yields. Sunflower oil and meal output estimates were reduced to 5.3 Mt and 5.1 Mt respectively (both -300k tonnes). Oil and meal exports were also revised – down to 4.875 Mt and 3.5 Mt, respectively.

Globally, sunflower production slightly raised, reaching 55.3 Mt (+170k tonnes), though oil and meal output slipped.

As of mid-September, Ukraine had harvested only 26.7% of its sunflower area (1.373 M ha), producing 2.415 Mt at 1.76 t/ha. Last year by the same date it was 49% harvested, 2.01 t/ha average. Continued rains remain a risk.

Prices stay elevated:

– Average seed price: UAH 26,500/t (~$680)

– CPT port: $1,200

– FCA east: $1,170

– Refined (RBD) port: $1,330 (offers as low as $1,280 FCA)

– Egypt booked cargo at ~$1,285; offers for Mersin are at $1,280; India ~$1,290.

Ukraine’s seed oil content dropped from 47.1 to 40.9%, with impurities raising from 2.1 to 3.4%. In Romania, it is stable at ~43% oil. Bulgaria has improved oil content from 40.4 to 42.5%, but with higher moisture and impurities.

Russia raised October export duties to RUB 8,047/t (~$96) for oil and RUB 1,408/t ($17) for meal – the highest since April 2025. With the ruble firming, Russian prices now exceed Ukrainian, supporting Ukrainian values at EU ports. Russia’s crop still looks solid at 17–18 Mt, though with weaker yields.

Turkey sharply boosted imports on domestic shortages, as Jan–Mar 2025 SFS imports hit 396k tonnes (4.3x versus 92k tonnes in 2024). Romania and Moldova were the main suppliers.

🌱 Soybeans & Rapeseed

Since September 1, Ukraine’s soybean and rapeseed exports have slowed sharply due to unclear export duty reimbursements. Though exemptions were promised, in practice the mechanism has failed. Rumors suggest the Chamber of Commerce may issue certificates to help, but no clarity yet.

September rapeseed exports fell from 486k tonnes in August to just 201k tonnes now. Ukraine, a top EU supplier, is now focusing on crushing, which reached record levels. 

Current offers:

– Rapeseed oil FCA: USD 1,100/t

– CDSBO: USD 1,080/t

Ukraine’s 2025 soybean harvest outlook is at 5.6 – 6.1 Mt (below 2024’s record).

September 2025 performance:

– Soybean oil: 37k tonnes (flat m/m, +113% y/y). Main buyer Poland (26.3k tonnes).

– Soybean meal: 108k tonnes (slightly down m/m, ~5x y/y). Buyers: Poland (32.7k tonnes), Turkey (26.5k tonnes).

China port stocks as of September 30:

– Soy oil: 1.22 Mt (-0.6% w/w, +3.3% m/m, 52.7% above 3-yr avg)

– Soybeans: 6.54 Mt (+0.6% w/w, -4.5% m/m, 6.3% below 3-yr avg).

🌾 Canola & Global Flows

Australia exported 155.28k t of canola in July – up 53% from June but well below July 2024’s 386.03k tonnes. Key buyers: Japan (76.36k tonnes), UAE (64.33k tonnes), Malaysia (6.58k tonnes). EU took none despite being the usual top market.

Meanwhile, China demand is expected to grow: COFCO obtained GM import certificates and may buy 5–9 Australian cargoes within two weeks.

🇺🇸 US Soy Complex & Macro Factors

US soybean harvest is progressing at last year’s pace, with a +22 Mt supply, but no Chinese bookings for three months are pressuring farmers and pushing CBOT soy below $10/bushel.

US government shutdown delays key data releases (jobs, export sales), adding uncertainty.

📊 Veg Oils Outlook – October

Overall, a mild bearish trend is expected as supply builds and demand stays soft. Rising biodiesel use of soy oil may lend indirect support to palm oil.

That’s all for now. Stay tuned.