Mid September

Hello everyone,Please enjoy a fresh overview of the vegetable oil market.

🌱 Soybean complex

USDA’s September report raised its US soybean crop estimate to 123.4M tons, from 123.0M tons in August. Exports were lifted to 45.9M tons, from 45.2M tons, while ending stocks were cut to 8.4M tons from 8.7M tons. The average farm price increased to $441/ton, from $419/ton.

For soyoil, USDA left production, domestic use, biodiesel consumption, exports and stocks unchanged, with the average price steady at 70¢/lb. However, it sharply raised the soymeal price forecast to $340/short ton, from $310 in August and $325 a year earlier.

Globally, USDA cut India’s soybean crop forecast, while raising the US crop by 5M tons and US exports by 7M tons. China’s import estimate was unchanged, while EU imports increased by 5M tons.

🌾 Rapeseed/canola

USDA forecasts rapeseed oil exports to rise 8% in 2026/27, led by Canada, Russia, Ukraine and Australia. The largest import growth is expected in the US and China.

Key changes versus August:

– Australia rapeseed exports: 5.3M to 6.0M tons

– EU rapeseed imports: 5.85M to 6.55M tons

– EU rapeseed oil imports: 400k to 550k tons

Top seed producers in 2026/27:

– Canada at 22.5M tons

– the EU at 20.15M tons

– China at 16.2M tons

– India at 12.4M tons

🌻 Sunflower seed & oil

Sunflower oil is expected to regain its share of global consumption in 2026/27, supported by strong area growth after two years of below-average Black Sea yields. Sunflower oil and equivalent exports are forecast to rise 15%, driven by larger crops and stronger exports from Ukraine and Russia. India and China are expected to post the fastest import growth.

Global sunflower seed production is forecast at 63.65M tons in 2026/27, up from 55.17M tons in 2025/26. Sunflower oil output is projected at 23.89M tons, with exports at 15.97M tons and ending stocks at 2.91M tons.

Sunflower oil FOB prices are falling faster than those of other vegetable oils. Ukraine spot and forward prices fell from $1,325 on August 31 to $1,275 by September 10–11. Russia declined from $1,319 to $1,265 over the same period, while Europe held steadier at around $1,385–1,390.

Soydegum’s discount to Russian sunflower oil narrowed sharply, from $180/$121 in July/August to just $32–46 by mid-September, confirming that sunflower oil is declining faster than soyoil. India CNF sunflower oil also dropped from $1,435 on September 8 to $1,375 on September 11. Container business was indicated at $1,330 for October and $1,310 for November–December.

🚢 Logistics, trade flows and outlook

Bulk oil export statistics for September 2026:

– Izmail: 13k MT

– Odesa: 80k MT

– Constanța: 40k MT

– Varna: 40k MT

– Russia, Black Sea: 0 MT

The Azov–Black Sea port blockade continues to disrupt logistics and cause crop accumulation. The bulk-shipment issue remains critical: Russian southern and Ukrainian main ports are closed for bulk cargo. Ukrainian container shipments are also constrained and directed mainly to Europe, while Russia exports primarily via St. Petersburg.

Russian export availability is pushing sunflower oil prices down faster. Ukrainian sunflowerseed prices are now quoted below UAH 19,000/ton including VAT (approximately $460/ton).

Ukrainian sunflower oil offers stand at $1,100 EXW Mykolaiv. India container offers are at $1,330–1,340, while refined (RBD) oil is holding up better at $1,330–1,340 FCA.

Sunflower oil in Ukraine is already trading below soybean and rapeseed oil, both of which continue to benefit from European biodiesel demand. European demand for sunflower oil remains limited.

China and India are holding back, expecting further declines. China traded at $1,250, with a target level of $1,100.

Global prices remain fragile and could shift quickly with either an escalation or a resolution that slows or stops supply flows. For now, sunflower oil remains the most attractively priced vegetable oil.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!