Late July

Hello everyone,Please enjoy a fresh overview of the vegetable oil market.

🚢 Black Sea logistics: Ukrainian ports under pressure

Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure are squeezing agricultural exports and disrupting key imports.

Soaring freight and transport costs are forcing traders to reduce grain purchase prices, leaving farmers to absorb the losses. Agribusinesses are shifting to alternative routes and offering flexible storage while market conditions remain uncertain.

Major shipping lines are scaling back direct calls to Ukraine:

– Maersk has suspended calls at Chornomorsk.

– CMA CGM has halted direct sea transport to Odesa.

– Cargo is being rerouted through regional hubs, including Constanța, Romania, and Gdańsk, Poland.

The result is longer delivery times, potential supply-chain bottlenecks and higher transit costs.

Ukraine’s main deep-water ports, Pivdennyi, Odesa and Chornomorsk (POC), have effectively become “ghost towns,” with maritime activity close to a standstill. Allseeds has suspended all Ukrainian operations following intensified missile and drone attacks on Odesa’s port and logistics infrastructure.

Russian strikes on Chornomorsk port and Odesa regional infrastructure also severely damaged Kernel export facilities. Kernel lost more than 45,000 tons of wheat and around 34,000 tons of sunflower oil, including stocks owned by a US company, forcing the group to fully suspend terminal operations.

Missile attacks on civilian vessels have almost halted grain exports through deep-water ports, as shipowners avoid Odesa and international traders suspend purchases. Food-wheat bid prices have fallen to $185–200/ton CPT, reaching as low as $178/ton in some cases, pressuring wheat, barley and corn values.

ussia is also set to temporarily restrict shipping through the Azov-Don Canal, stalling grain-laden vessels. The Azov Sea handles around 25% of Russian grain exports. Higher freight and insurance costs are reducing the competitiveness of Russian wheat, while slower export demand is building domestic stocks, lowering local prices and hurting farmer margins.

Novorossiysk and Taman cannot fully absorb displaced volumes from Azov or Ukrainian ports. Night curfews, rising war-risk insurance and drone threats are creating bottlenecks at Russia’s major deep-water export outlets. Baltic terminals offer only limited relief because of capacity constraints and higher inland transport costs. Market participants expect key buyers, including Türkiye, may seek to mediate and restore safe passage.

🌻 Sunflower oil: tight effective availability supports the market

The sunflower complex remains fundamentally supported despite a substantial rise in Russian sunflower oil production. The key issue is not theoretical production capacity, but the availability of exportable sunflower oil and sunflower seed, particularly from the Black Sea region.

Russian sunflower oil output rose by around 9.0–9.4% year on year. However, July vessel loadings in both Ukraine and Russia remained below last year’s levels:

– Ukrainian loadings were almost 30% lower year on year.

– Russian first-half July loadings were around 10% lower year on year.

– European sunflower seed crushing fell to its lowest monthly level of 2026.

India continued to diversify and increase sunflower oil purchases. Argentine sunflower oil exports to India reached around 318k MT, roughly three times the previous year’s volume.

European sunflower oil retained a sizeable premium of around $75–120/MT over Black Sea and Argentine origins. The market structure is therefore moderately bullish, with the most immediate upside risk likely to emerge through freight, war-risk insurance, port congestion and alternative routing costs rather than FOB values alone.

💰 Price structure: Ukraine, Russia, Europe and Argentina

Ukraine, July 2026

– Movement since 30 June 2026: −$5/MT

– Movement since 29 May 2026: −$10/MT

– Year-on-year movement since 30 June 2025: +$245/MT, or around +21.7%

– Observed July trading range: $1,365–1,385/MT

Russia, July 2026

– Movement since 30 June 2026: −$5/MT

– Movement since 29 May 2026: −$10/MT– Year-on-year movement: +$245/MT, or around +21.9%

– July trading range: $1,355–1,375/MT

– Total July range: $20/MT

Russia maintained a consistent discount of around $10/MT to Ukrainian sunflower oil.

Date	Ukraine	Russia	Russian discount
22 July 2026	$1,365/MT	$1,355/MT	$10/MT
23 July 2026	$1,375/MT	$1,365/MT	$10/MT

Russia remained the most competitive Black Sea origin in the two reporting sessions.

Europe

– Movement since 30 June 2026: −$20/MT, or around −1.3%

– Year-on-year movement: +$270/MT, or around +22.3%

On 23 July 2026, European prices stood at:

– August: $1,480/MT– September: $1,480/MT

– October–December: $1,450/MT

The August/October–December spread narrowed from $55/MT to $30/MT, a contraction of $25/MT. This matters because the main daily strength was in deferred positions rather than prompt August, signalling firmer expectations for the fourth-quarter European sunflower oil balance.

Argentina

– Movement since 30 June 2026: +$45/MT, or around +3.4%

– Movement since 17 July 2026: +$15/MT

– September daily movement: +$5/MT

– September movement since 17 July 2026: +$10/MT

On 23 July 2026, the August/September spread was only $5/MT, with August at $1,365/MT and September at $1,360/MT. This near-flat forward curve suggests relatively balanced nearby availability compared with Europe.

Argentina September was the lowest quotation in the reported structure at $1,360/MT FOB. Russian and Argentine August values were both $1,365/MT, while Ukraine carried a $10/MT premium.

📊 Supply, demand and key market risks

The lower July shipment pace highlights the impact of logistics. Using last year’s loadings as an index of 100, Russia is operating at around 90 and Ukraine at around 70.

Factors limiting further price gains include higher Russian production and crushing:

– Russian sunflower oil production increased by around 9.0–9.4%.

– Russian sunflower meal production rose by 473k MT, signalling strong domestic seed crushing.

– Despite severe Ukrainian logistical disruption, both Ukrainian and Russian sunflower oil were only $5/MT below 30 June 2026 levels and around $10/MT below late-May levels.

This suggests logistical risks have not yet been fully reflected in FOB prices and are more likely to appear through freight and CIF premiums.

Supply indicator	Change
Russian sunflower oil production	+9.0–9.4%
Russian sunflower meal production	+473k MT
Russian first-half July loadings	Around −10% year on year
Ukrainian July loadings	Almost −30% year on year
Ukrainian Black Sea capacity loss	Around 33%
European June sunflower seed/rapeseed crushing	Lowest monthly level of 2026

Demand indicator	Volume/change
Argentina-to-India sunflower oil exports	318k MT
Estimated year-on-year increase	Around 212k MT
Estimated growth rate	Around +200%
Indian January–June vegetable oil imports	7.535M MT
Increase versus previous year	+1.1M MT
Estimated growth	Around +17.1%
Expected Indian July–October imports	Around 6.0M MT

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!