Early July

Hello everyone,Please enjoy a fresh overview of the vegetable oil market.

🌱 Soybean Complex

The soybean complex remains mixed, with a clear divergence between products. Soybean oil continues to outperform, while soybeans and soybean meal stay under pressure.

CBOT Soybean Futures

Soybean futures remain below May highs, with weakness concentrated in beans rather than oil. Market support is coming from vegetable oil demand, not from soybeans themselves.

CBOT Soybean Oil

Soybean oil remains the strongest product across the entire vegetable oil complex. Despite a correction from May highs, the long-term bullish structure remains intact. Prices are still around $312/MT above last year, and values continue trading at historically elevated levels.

Soybean Meal

Soybean meal remains the weakest component of the complex. June closed around $304.7/MT, with downside risk still present and prices potentially moving below $300/MT as supply continues to expand.

Argentina & Brazil FOB Soybean Oil

FOB values remain firm within a $1,153–1,185/MT range. Brazil continues to trade at a premium over Argentina, reflecting stronger demand and tighter availability.

India CNF Soy degum

This was the most significant intra-day change. India CNF prices rose by $21–22/MT in a single session across July–September shipments, providing strong support for CDSBO offers and making lower bids increasingly difficult to justify.

Biodiesel & US Crushing

Biodiesel remains the strongest fundamental driver:

– US soybean oil used for biodiesel (Jan–Apr): +37% YoY

– Average monthly soybean oil consumption: 515k MT vs 327k MT last year

– Canola oil biodiesel demand: +250% YoY

Record US crushing has lifted soybean oil production, but biodiesel demand continues absorbing supply. Soybean meal output keeps rising, maintaining pressure on meal prices.

Trading View

– CDSBO: Bullish, maintain firm offers

– Crude soybean oil: Bullish, supported by India CNF and biodiesel

– RBD soybean oil: Firm, no need for aggressive discounts

– Soybean meal: Bearish, further downside possible

– Soybeans: Neutral to slightly bearish, oil continues to outperform

🌻 Sunflower Oil

Sunflower oil is stable to slightly firm. The market is not aggressively bullish, but there is no strong pressure to reduce prices, largely due to weaker Ukraine crush and exports.

Ukraine and Russia FOB prices remain firm, Europe softened only marginally (around $5/MT), and Argentina stayed flat near $1,320/MT. India CNF Sunoil improved by $10/MT in the evening report, supporting a firm stance for nearby cargoes.

Sunoil vs Soydegum (India CNF)

Sunoil remains significantly more expensive. On 3 July, soydegum was $184/MT cheaper than sunoil, keeping soydegum competitive for buyers.

Ukraine Fundamentals

Old-crop supply and export flows remain tight:– Sunflower seed crush (Sep–May): 8.5 MMT, -11% YoY– June sunflower oil exports: -78% MoM

The new-crop forecast is higher (13.4 MMT vs 10.8 MMT last crop). Short term remains supportive, while new crop could turn bearish later if harvest and logistics run smoothly.

Argentina Fundamentals

Argentina has already exported a large portion of its seed surplus. This may limit domestic crushing during June–December, which is supportive for sunflower oil prices.

India’s recent local price weakness reflects demand and weather factors rather than a collapse in international prices. Festival demand may provide support later in the season.

Russia Outlook

IKAR raised its 2026/27 sunflower crop forecast to 19.7 MMT (from 19.0 MMT), while cutting soybean production estimates. A larger sunflower crop is a longer-term bearish risk, but near-term uncertainty remains.

🌾 Rapeseed & Canola

Rapeseed and canola markets remain firm to slightly bullish in nearby positions, supported by tight old-crop availability, biodiesel demand, and strength across the vegetable oil complex.

European rapeseed oil prices show an almost flat forward curve, with only about €16/MT between front-month and forward positions, indicating the market is not pricing a sharp decline.

Old-crop rapeseed oil availability in Europe is very limited, with crushers reporting low stocks. Rapeseed methyl ester margins remain under pressure due to expensive feedstock, which is bullish for nearby oil prices.

Biodiesel demand continues to support values:– US soybean oil demand: +37% YoY– US canola oil demand: +250% YoY

Main bearish risks remain better new-crop prospects, lower crude oil prices, and larger global oilseed supply later in the season.

🌴 Palm Oil

Palm oil recovered during the session, helping stabilize and support the broader vegetable oil complex. BMD futures gained 19 RM, while RBD olein and CPO values edged higher.

Malaysia export demand remains supportive, and palm oil continues to trade competitively versus soybean oil. Sentiment improved during the day, with no strong bearish signals visible in the short term.

🌍 Macro, FX & Policy

Lower crude oil prices (WTI $68.46/bbl, Brent $71.54/bbl) slightly limit further upside for biodiesel feedstocks, but current biodiesel demand continues to provide strong underlying support.

Currency markets are mostly neutral overall, while a weaker Russian ruble remains supportive for Russian exports. Biodiesel policy remains clearly bullish, with demand continuing to absorb large volumes of vegetable oils globally.

Near-term guidance:

July–August cargoes should maintain firm offers, avoiding aggressive discounts.

An additional risk remains Russia, where uncertainty around diesel (GSM) availability could delay harvesting, potentially tightening near-term supply and supporting rapeseed, canola, and sunflower oil prices.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!