early September

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the vegetable oil market.

🌱 Soybean complex

CBOT settlements on September 2, 2026:

Soybeans

• $13.026/bu for September

• $13.102/bu for November

• $13.250/bu for January 2027

• $13.304/bu for March 2027.

Soymeal

• $373.90/MT for September

• $377.97/MT for October

• $385.60/MT for December

• $388.23/MT for January 2027.

Soyoil

• $1,554.25/MT for September

• $70.64  cts/lb for October

• $70.96 cts/lb for December

• $70.99 cts/lb for January 2027

Argentina soyoil FOB for September was $1,222/MT, with a -1,700 basis. Its discount to CBOT narrowed to $321/MT in August 2026 from $482/MT in May 2026, with prices gaining about $30/MT over the period. Brazil soyoil FOB for September was $1,249/MT, with a -1,400 basis.

The US, Brazil and Argentina averaged 14.8M tonnes/month of crush in January–July 2026, broadly unchanged from 14.7M tonnes/month in 2025. Cumulative crush reached 103.73M tonnes. Combined soyoil production totalled 19.57M tonnes; June exports were 833k tonnes against 3.014M tonnes of production, an export-to-production ratio of about 27%.

US soyoil production rose 12.4% y/y to 8.07M tonnes in January–July, while January–June domestic consumption increased by 1M tonnes y/y to 6.88M tonnes. Crushing-plant soyoil stocks fell 6% m/m to 679.5k tonnes in July 2026.

DCE prices on September 3, 2026 were $740/MT for November soybeans, $498/MT for September soymeal and $1,445/MT for September soyoil.

The EPA granted small refiners biofuel waivers covering 1.76B RINs, almost twice market expectations. Initially bearish for soyoil feedstock demand, the decision was offset by the EPA’s commitment to shift the 2026–2027 obligation to larger refiners rather than remove it. Total biodiesel-feedstock demand therefore remains intact. RIN prices rose 16% on the day and CDSBO rallied as the market priced in the unchanged overall mandate.

🌻 Sunflower oil / Black Sea market

Ukraine’s 2025/26 sunflower oil production declined 15.4% y/y to 4.437M tonnes, while exports fell 14.2% to 4.060M tonnes. Shipments to India dropped 41.1%, but exports to Egypt rose 44% and those to Jordan surged 230%.

Russia’s production was broadly flat at 7.310M tonnes, while exports slipped only 5.4% to 4.820M tonnes. Russia exported 784k tonnes more than Ukraine, widening the gap sharply from last season. India remains the top buyer for both origins, although Russia’s imports were more than three times Ukraine’s: 1.405M tonnes versus 452k tonnes.

Ukraine sunoil FOB spot/forward was $1,325/MT, versus $1,319/MT for Russia. EU six-port prices for October–December stood at $1,420/MT. Argentina soydegum’s discount to sunoil FOB narrowed from $165/MT on August 9 to $97/MT in September 2026.

The 2026/27 Black Sea sunflower crop is projected at 40.58M tonnes, up 5.5M tonnes y/y.

• Russia: 19.495M tonnes (versus 17.506M tonnes in 2025/26)

• Ukraine: 13.447M tonnes (versus 10.640M tonnes in 2025/26)

• Romania: 2.310M tonnes

• Bulgaria: 2.081M tonnes

Russian farm sunflower seed stocks stood at 2.14M tonnes in February 2026. Russian sunoil output reached 6.37M tonnes in September 2025–June 2026. Kazakhstan exported 788.3k tonnes of sunoil in 2025/26, while global exports reached 6.25M tonnes in January–June 2026, with Argentina remaining the third-largest exporter.

In Ukraine, seed deliveries to plants have accelerated sharply: prices moved from UAH 35k/tonne (about $850/tonne) two months ago to UAH 20.5k/tonne (about $500/tonne) before harvest and UAH 19.5k/tonne (about $475/tonne) today. Farmers are delivering directly from the fields.

Both crude and RBD supply are available, while plants are holding prices: FCA at 1,180–1,250, RBD at 1,300–1,410 and bottled oil at 1.40–1.45. Crush margins have fallen from more than UAH 5k/tonne (about $120/tonne) last season to around UAH 1k/tonne (about $25/tonne).

The Russian market remains less clear, with minimum Novorossiysk offers inactive. Odessa container activity has stopped and bulk trade is less active. CPT contracts are being washed out because of logistics; latest Izmail–Latakia freight is $160/tonne. Russia is offering RBD via Far East containers or the Baltic at $1,500/MT CIF, and crude to India for October at $1,380/MT, although transit times remain uncertain. The UAE contracted December cargoes, while Argentina offered bulk CIF at $1,500/MT.

🌾 Rapeseed and canola

ICE canola settlements on September 2, 2026 were $825.80/MT for November, $835.90/MT for January 2027 and $843.90/MT for March 2027. Dutch FOB rapeseed oil was $1,245/MT for September, $1,235/MT for October and $1,217/MT for November.

🌴 Palm oil

The third-month BMD contract settled at MYR 4,902/MT ($1,213/MT) on September 3, 2026.

Malaysia indications

• RBD palm olein: $1,200/MT for September and $1,212.5–1,237.5/MT for October.

• CPO: $1,265/MT for September and $1,295/MT for October;

Indonesia indications

• RBD palm olein: $1,187.5/MT for September and $1,210/MT for October.

• CPO: $1,235/MT and $1,255/MT, respectively.

Malaysian August CPO and olein shipments fell 17% m/m, while total palm exports declined 15% m/m. Combined CPO and olein exports were 32% below July’s 743k tonnes. Malaysian July CPO stocks reached 1.429M tonnes, continuing their build since March 2026.

Combined Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production rose 2.6M tonnes y/y to 38.60M tonnes in January–June 2026. Exports reached 8.65M tonnes, nearly 50% above soyoil exports. DCE September palm oil closed at $1,443/MT on September 3, 2026.

⚡ Energy and macro

Some final indicators:

• US Dollar Index: 99.552

• WTI crude: $91.01/bbl

• Brent crude: $95.63/bbl

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 53,061

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!