Early October
Hello everyone,
Please enjoy a fresh overview of the vegetable oil market.
🌻 Sunflower oil and seeds
Prices and quotations
– Ukraine FOB spot/forward: $1,195/t (down from $1,230/t on October 6)
– Russia FOB spot/forward: $1,185/t (down from $1,225/t on October 6)
– Europe (six ports, CIF): $1,370/t (October–November–December)
– Argentina FOB: $1,350/t (October–November–December)
– India CNF: $1,420/t (October/November)
– China domestic market: deals at CNY 8,300/t, with many offers at CNY 8,400/t
– Iran CFR: demand is sluggish at $1,300–1,310/t
Ukraine’s EXW prices for RBD oil approach $1,050/t. RBD still looks relatively expensive, but processors continue to maintain good margins as seed prices fall in Russia and Ukraine. Sunflower seed purchases delivered to Ukrainian plants (DAP) range from UAH 17,700 to 20,300/t with VAT (about $395–453/t). Prices are lower in the south and centre, where raw material is flowing in, and higher in the west.
Ukraine’s harvest has reached 2.54M ha (or 49% of the plan), with a total of 5.38Mt threshed at a yield of 2.1t/ha. Seed stocks stood at 7.58Mt on October 1. The September crush was at 0.4Mt, while oil exports fell to 151Kt.
Export risks are growing. Barva Invest modelling suggests that, with port restrictions in the Black and Azov Seas, Russia could export only 3.3Mt of oil this season, versus the USDA forecast of 5.1Mt — a shortfall of 1.8Mt (~35%). Ukraine could export just 2.9Mt versus the 5.0Mt forecast — a shortfall of 2.1Mt of oil, equivalent to 5.0Mt of unprocessed sunflower seeds.
Kernel’s UCHI plant has suspended purchases following an attack. Attacks on tankers carrying meal and oil are also making freight more expensive and complicated, putting pressure on plants’ purchase prices.
In Turkey, the free trade agreement entered into force on October 1, with a 50Kt quota exempt from the 10% duty. Turkey also cut its import duty to 12% and booked 400Kt of sunflower seeds for September–November. The limited duty-free window could support prices in the short term. Ukrainian market talk also points to a developing problem with VAT refunds, reportedly because the government is short of funds. If it persists, this could become a longer-term issue for exporters.
🚢 Black Sea disruption
Black Sea disruption is now affecting contracts. Attacks on port infrastructure have led to the rare cancellation of a 20Kt Russian sunflower oil cargo bound for India, while about 60Kt more is delayed.
Rerouting through the Baltic adds cost and time. Russian sellers are shifting shipments to St Petersburg and Ust-Luga, increasing freight costs and adding roughly 10 days to voyages.
India is short of sunflower oil. With ~250Kt of imports a month needed, October arrivals could fall to 160Kt. Stocks are already depleted ahead of the festival season. INERCO is offering bulk oil at $1,470/t and containers at $1,330–1,350/t, but buyers are beginning to realise that executing shipments in containers is not easy.
🌱 Argentine soy oil
Argentina has ample soybean supply. September stocks are estimated at ~ 25Mt, while exports are to remain slow through December. The January–August crush was at 28.3Mt, only slightly above last year, and more crushing is likely: September–December crush could reach about 19Mt.
Monthly soyoil output has been running at roughly 820k–846Kt and could rise above 1Mt. Soy oil cannot fully replace missing sunflower oil, but it could partly bridge the gap if Black Sea supply keeps tightening — especially in India. Additional Indian demand would help absorb Argentina’s surplus and could support the wider vegetable oil complex.
Prices and quotations
– December CBOT soybean oil: 69.91 cents/lb (about $1,540/t)
– Argentine degummed soy oil: $1,213–1,217/t FOB (October/November)
– Indian CNF soya degum: ~ $1,303/t.
Argentina’s January–August crush reached a record 28.28Mt, with soyoil output at a record 5.58Mt. A further 5Mt of crushing is expected in September–December. Argentine soy oil trades about $88/t above Malaysian palm olein, making it a natural alternative as Black Sea sunflower oil tightens.
🌴 Palm Oil
Palm oil is also filling the gap. Indian buyers booked about 150Kt of crude palm oil in three days for November–December shipment, which could help draw down stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia. Tighter sunflower oil supply and the switch to palm point to firmer prices, while higher freight and longer transit times add risk for buyers and sellers planning Q4 shipments.
🌾 Rapeseed oil and canola
Prices and quotations
– Dutch FOB rapeseed oil: EUR 1,240–1,245/t (October) and EUR 1,232/t (November/ December/January)
– ICE canola futures: CAD 825.80/t (November) and CAD 839.00/t (January)
– Chinese DCE rapeseed oil: CNY 10,100/t (January)
High European diesel prices (EUR 2.23–2.24/litre) and Brent at about $100.60/bbl continue to support biodiesel (RME) crush margins.
Kazakhstan exported 110.6Kt of rapeseed oil in 2025/26.
Russia has been undercutting the market on price. Offers to India have fallen to $1,090/t and below for vessel shipments, though only for limited volumes; average offers are around $1,150/t. Meanwhile, China continues to close Russian plants over GMO concerns.
Euronext February rapeseed: ~ EUR 559/t, with an expected range of EUR 550–565/t.
Rapeseed oil offers (DAP, October 6)
– Ukraine Odessa: UAH 22,000–22,650/t ($490–505/t) with VAT
– Ukraine Danube $485–490+/t ISCC
– Germany: EUR 535/t (October–November)
– Germany: EUR 546/t for (January–March) ISCC
– Eastern Germany: $650/t (January–February) ISCC
Rapeseed oil quotes at EUR 1,020/t DAP Izov (October–November), with rapeseed meal at EUR 315/t CIF Spain.
Ukraine’s end-September rapeseed stocks are estimated at 2.2–2.6Mt, against initial supply of 3.9M t. Exports and crushing used 1.65–1.70Mt in July–September. September seed exports were at 396Kt, while rapeseed oil exports reached 0.15Mt — well below the 0.22Mt benchmark.
📊 Macro and conclusion
The energy and currency backdrop remains supportive for veg oils. Brent is at $100.58/bbl and WTI at $89.44/bbl, keeping biodiesel margins attractive. The US Dollar Index stands at 101.6, and the Malaysian ringgit is at 4.082 per dollar.
The veg oil market is being pulled in two directions.
Black Sea disruption, higher freight and longer voyages are tightening sunflower oil supply. Importers such as India are already shifting to palm oil, with Argentine soy oil and rapeseed oil as further alternatives.
At the same time, record Malaysian palm stocks, heavy Argentine soybean supply and falling seed prices are keeping a lid on outright prices. As a result, the cost and risk of moving oil out of the Black Sea appear to be falling on producers rather than lifting FOB quotes.
Over the next few weeks, the market will hinge on four factors: port and shipping security in the Black Sea, Malaysian palm stock data, Indian buying ahead of the festival season, and biofuel policy in the US, Indonesia and Argentina. In this environment, flexibility on origin, port and packaging matters as much as price.
That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!
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