Late October

Hello community, 

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🌻 Sunflower Oil & Seeds

Ukraine’s sunflower harvest is down 23% YoY due to weaker yields. Farmers are selling slowly, keeping crushers undersupplied. Processors are lifting domestic prices to secure volumes, though crush margins remain tight. The country’s sunflower crush is at a decade low, constraining export potential for the rest of the season.

• Sunflower oil FOB Ukraine: ~ $1,270/MT

• RBD oil: ~ $1,330/MT

• Bottled oil: UAH 55–56/L (~ $1.38/L) FCA

Mersin offers are around $1,320, while Turkish buyers pay $1,290 without bargaining.

China continues to buy independently, targeting $1,260 CIF.

In Russia, sunflower remains the most profitable oilseed in 2025/26, with margins near 58%, supported by drought-driven lower supply and strong domestic prices. The country’s SFO exports in September stood near 85,000 tons, indicating limited sunflower seed carryover.

Meanwhile, European SFO rose to $1,365–1,370/MT FOB, reflecting tight supply and higher import costs.

🌱 Soybean Oil

CBOT soy oil slipped from 53.0¢ to 51.6¢/lb (down ~$30/MT) this week, pressured by:

– abundant US and Brazil harvests

– weaker crude oil

– slower biodiesel demand

The EPA’s delay of 2023–2025 biodiesel credit allocations to 2026–2027 adds policy uncertainty in the US.

FOB prices in Argentina, Brazil, and the US are slightly softer – at $1,110–1,130/MT.

Trade uncertainty between the US and China keeps the market range-bound.

In India, trading is quiet due to holidays, capping the upside as soy oil meets strong resistance near ₹1,250 (Kandla).

🌴 Palm Oil 

Palm oil maintains a steady upward trend. As long as Indonesia keeps export restrictions and India sustains festive buying, the CPO market is expected to hold within MYR 4,580–4,625.

A consolidation phase may follow after November if demand eases and weather risks diminish.

China’s palm oil inventories gained 4.8%, reaching 59.12K tons. Meanwhile, other vegoils declined — signaling soft local demand and strong imports amid cheaper offers from Malaysia and Indonesia.

Higher palm prices could push India toward greater use of alternative oils and lower imports.

🌾 Rapeseed Oil

In China, rapeseed oil shows speculative strength but may stabilize as Australian seed arrivals resume and Russian rapeseed oil enters the market.

That’s all the news for now, but I also want to use the opportunity to wish everyone a happy and prosperous time as we celebrate the bright holiday of Diwali 🪔