Early March

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🫘 Soy Complex

The soybean complex on CBOT shows a clear divergence between oil, meal, and beans.

Soybeans remain relatively stable, as May futures moved from 11.70 to 11.79 $/bushel (430 → 433 $/MT), indicating a balanced outlook for raw bean supply. Meal weakened, with May futures dropping from 353 to 340 $/MT, reflecting softer feed demand and strong South American crop supply. Oil is driving the market, where May futures rose from 61.85 to 65.70 cents/lb (1,363 → 1,448 $/MT).

Meanwhile, physical premiums in South America weakened.

– Argentina FOB May: basis widened from –1200 to –1650 points vs CBOT FOB ~ 1,085 $/MT

– Brazil FOB May: rose from ~ 1,100 to 1,129 $/MT

Market structure:

– Soybean oil rallying (+85 $/MT)

– Soybean meal declining (–13 $/MT)

– Soybeans broadly stable

All of this improves crush margins, supporting oil production but pressuring physical premiums.

Meanwhile, Brazil exported about 250k MT of soybean oil to India in Jan–Feb — the highest in three years.

🌴 Inter-Oil Spreads

Relative pricing between major vegetable oils shifted notably.

Soy oil vs Malaysian RBD palm olein premium narrowed from +54 $/MT to about –9 to –20 $/MT for Apr–May, making palm oil more competitive.

Soy oil trades at a –200 to –219 $/MT discount to Russian sunflower oil.

The spread vs Malaysian CPO moved from +23 $/MT to roughly –64 $/MT, showing stronger palm oil performance.

Market picture:

– Palm oil strengthens

– Soy oil relatively weak

– Sunflower oil remains the most expensive

🌻 Sunflower Oil and Black Sea

Black Sea prices remain relatively stable.

Ukraine:

• 1,335 $/MT FOB

• 1,300 $/MT FCA factory

Russia:

• 1,315 $/MT FOB

Europe trades significantly higher at ~1,470 $/MT, reflecting tighter regional supply.

Argentina remains competitive at ~1,300–1,320 $/MT.

Ukraine RBD sunflower oil is offered at ~1,380 $/MT FCA factory, as exports to MENA and GCC face strong logistical pressure. Several ports are suspended or operating with heavy war-risk surcharges, pushing freight costs from 100 to 200+ $/MT. As a result, supply to UAE, Oman, and Qatar is uncertain, with some cargo rerouted to Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, and Salalah.

Meanwhile, Russia’s sunflower planting area is expected at ~10.9 M ha in 2026, slightly below 11.07 M ha last year but still ~6% above the 3-year average.

In India, sunflower oil remains the most expensive edible oil, at ~200 $/MT above soybean oil.

🇮🇳 🇨🇳 India and China

India remains price-driven, switching between palm, soy, and sunflower depending on spreads.

RBD palmolein is still cheaper than soy oil, though the discount narrowed from –129 to –75 $/MT. The country's CSFO offers are about 1,420 $/MT CIF, with trades near 1,400 $/MT. Edible oil stocks have fallen to roughly 20–25 days of consumption, suggesting imports may soon increase.

China remains demand-driven.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange:

– Palm oil leads the complex

– Soybean oil ~1,218 $/MT

– Soymeal ~422 $/MT

China vegoil stocks:

– Soybean oil: 1.13 MMT (–1.5%)

– Palm oil: 0.85 MMT (+5.6%)

– Rapeseed oil: 0.48 MMT (–2.2%)

Overall, soybean and rapeseed oil remain supportive, while palm oil faces pressure from higher arrivals.

🌱 Canola, Palm

Canadian canola futures strengthened, with the May contracts near 720 $/MT, supported by firm oilseed demand. Australia exported about 604,000 MT of canola in December, with strong demand from Germany, Belgium, Japan, and Pakistan.

Palm oil markets remain supported by tightening Southeast Asian supply. Malaysian production fell about –18% MoM, as La Niña weather disruptions continue.

Indonesia’s B40–B50 biodiesel mandates are raising domestic consumption and limiting exports. Higher crude oil prices and freight disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz add further support.

As a result, BMD CPO futures are expected to remain firm, targeting MYR 4,450–4,500.

🌍 Global Outlook

The global vegoil market appears to be entering a structural shift:

– Supply growth from Argentina and Black Sea sunflower may pressure sunflower oil prices

– Biodiesel demand in Indonesia supports palm oil

– Ukraine increasingly processes oilseeds domestically, tightening export availability

Net result: rising volatility, as palm oil supported by energy demand, while sunflower oil faces correction risk in H2 2026.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!