END OF YEAR

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market — the final one this year.

🚢 Black Sea Logistics & Sunflower Complex

Ukrainian ports remained restricted on December 24–25, with no confirmed reopening of the corridor. Limited access was discussed, but security and weather risks continue to keep vessel movements uncertain as vessel and container activity remains minimal.

The current port situation and upcoming holidays are increasing seller liquidity and oil availability, mainly on FCA Ukraine terms.

SFS prices in Ukraine softened due to holiday-related liquidity slowdown, crushers largely being covered, and persistent war-related risks.

Current indications:

– CSFO CPT Yuzhny ~ $1,200–1,210/MT

– RBD SFO ~ $1,320/MT FCA factory

– Europe FOB ~ $1,420/MT ask, a clear premium to the Black Sea ($1,250–1,270/MT)

The Black Sea market remains flat to weak: Ukraine and Russia are range-bound with no upside momentum.

🌍 Regional Demand

The sunflower oil market is becoming increasingly regional. Europe is paying for security and nearby supply, while the Black Sea remains pressured by liquidity and logistics constraints.

Argentina continues to set the floor for SFO, with FM levels at $1,205–1,210/MT, limiting downside risk.

Despite weak CBOT soyoil, the wide spread between sunflower and soy persists. SFO is supported by regional supply tightness rather than futures.

Turkey sharply reduced SFO imports in 2025 — to around 100k MT/month vs 150k MT previously, significantly weakening the demand. Meanwhile, exports from the country remain marginal and are not a market driver.

India’s SFO imports also remain extremely low, offering little demand-side support.

🌱 Soy complex

In Argentina, tight soybean and soy oil availability continues to support January shipments at a premium to CBOT, reflecting limited old-crop supplies. From February onward, new-crop arrivals are expected to improve availability, easing nearby tightness and flattening the curve.

In Brazil, forward soybean and soy oil offers are emerging at small discounts to CBOT, adding pressure to deferred months.

Overall, the soy complex remains globally supplied and flow-driven. Near-term tightness is largely confined to Argentina, while improving South American supply from Q1–Q2 is expected to cap upside and increase price sensitivity to demand.

Black Sea CDSBO offers from Ukraine are edging lower due to logistics constraints. Further pressure is possible as EU meal prices decline, potentially followed by oil. Long EU holidays may also slow demand.

🌾 Rapeseed oil

China prices for rapeseed oil are down ~ 5% amid weak demand, while EU FOB January levels are near $1,273/MT and continue to decline. High global supply, including Australia, keeps the market pressured. The trend remains bearish, with limited upside.

🌴 Palm oil

Malaysia exports of palm oil increased by ~ 3%, while production fell ~ 9%, turning fundamentals more supportive. KLC rebounded about 4–5%, aided by stronger crude oil and short covering. The trend points to a short-term recovery from lows, with downside limited but upside capped by weak global demand.

Thank you to everyone who was with us this year, with all of ts ups and downs.

Wishing you a Happy New Year ahead! 🥂