Veg oil markets remain firm despite typical December–January seasonal weakness, driven by constrained physical supply. SFO continues to be supported by tight Black Sea availability, higher logistics and insurance costs, and limited exports from Ukraine and Russia. With low stocks in Egypt, weaker buying power in India, and expected delays in production, logistics, and banking, downside potential appears limited, keeping prices elevated and volatile.

Near term (December–January), the market is expected to stay soft to sideways, with limited upside. Some stabilization is possible in February–March, but there is still no strong bullish signal unless demand improves or stocks tighten.

Global markets stay on edge due to the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict, rising tensions around Venezuela, and unresolved Canada–China canola issues. Severe weather in Indonesia and Malaysia may slow palm output. Sunflower oil remains under pressure, keeping the vegoil complex highly sensitive to energy and weather shocks.