Late December

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🚢 Black Sea Logistics & Sunflower Oil

As of December 22, the situation at Pivdennyi Port remains tense. According to the Coordination Center of the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA), the next vessel entry into the maritime corridor is tentatively scheduled for 20:00 on December 23, 2025, subject to security conditions. Vessel departures are not suspended, but unloading is currently on hold due to the temporary closure of the inbound corridor.

Allseeds Group facilities at Pivdennyi Port have been struck multiple times, resulting in fires, casualties, and the loss of significant volumes of vegetable oil. Force majeure has been formally declared following the recent escalation. During the night of December 22, the port was again attacked, with a fire affecting around 30 containers of flour and vegetable oil.

As of December 22, Hapag-Lloyd and MSC have suspended bookings for Ukraine cargo, while Maersk is operating at limited capacity. Local logistics costs have risen sharply due to heightened security risks, alongside higher insurance premiums. CPT Odesa was inactive, with only indicative bids near $1,210/MT for CSFO. In comparison, Turkey is offering around $1,310/MT CIF, with buying interest close to $1,300/MT. EU prices opened stronger amid expectations of export duties and continued attacks on port infrastructure.

RBD SFO offers remain firm, with the lowest levels around $1,350/MT FCA. High electricity costs and elevated oilseed prices continue to support the market, while sales are largely focused on the EU.

🌻 Russia & Global Sunflower Oil Balance

Recent trader feedback from Russia indicates mixed but generally firm sentiment. January levels were discussed around $1,325/MT, while trades near $1,340/MT CIF India were concluded about two weeks ago, including confirmed January purchases at $1,338–1,340/MT. In this context, $1,350/MT is viewed as a defensible level as of December 22.

Earlier, lower indications were seen for China-bound cargoes — around $1,280–1,290/MT, but no recent deals have been confirmed. RBD quotations of $1,450–1,460/MT CIF Jeddah and Jebel Ali are broadly considered out of market. At current exchange rates, the January export duty stands at $118/MT.

Argentina SFO exports are projected to rise by around 30% YoY this year. However, with only about a 12% share of global exports, Argentina’s ability to ease tight global supply or materially pressure prices remains limited.

🇮🇳 India & Global Oilseed Demand

India SFO imports continue to decline:

– FY 2023/24: ~3.0–3.2 M tons

– FY 2024/25: ~2.3–2.5 M tons (−20–25% YoY)

Overall, the sunflower oil outlook is broadly similar across regions, characterized by tight availability, elevated prices, and high sensitivity to supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, the global soybean oil market remains range-bound. Record soybean output in Brazil (~180.4 M tons) is ensuring ample supply and limiting upside. Recent price strength is largely technical, supported by energy markets rather than demand. Biofuel policy uncertainty and selective buying from China continue to cap rallies, although lower veg oil stocks in key importing markets such as India provide short-term support. With all that, prices are expected to remain volatile without a clear bullish trend.

The soybean complex is technically oversold, allowing room for a rebound, yet the recent price decline has not translated into improved physical availability. Supplies from key origins remain constrained, while demand is emerging, particularly from Egypt and Turkey. Ukrainian offers are limited, with prices ticking higher. As a result, while futures-led rallies may face resistance, the physical market remains firm due to tight local supply.

🌱 Rapeseed / Canola

The rapeseed & canola market remains oversupplied, as higher global production and weak export demand continue to pressure prices. Futures are stabilizing near recent lows, but fundamentals remain bearish, and rallies are likely to face selling unless supported by energy markets or weather risks.

Canada’s canola market is well supplied and structurally heavy. Export flows remain active despite the loss of China, with the U.S. biofuels sector and Southeast Asia absorbing volumes. Canola oil exports remain heavily dependent on the U.S. While prices are still above pre-2020 historical averages, the trend points toward normalization and limited upside, as ample supply and modest demand growth dominate.

🧭 General Outlook

Veg oil markets remain firm despite typical December–January seasonal weakness, driven by constrained physical supply. SFO continues to be supported by tight Black Sea availability, higher logistics and insurance costs, and limited exports from Ukraine and Russia. With low stocks in Egypt, weaker buying power in India, and expected delays in production, logistics, and banking, downside potential appears limited, keeping prices elevated and volatile.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!