Start of December

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🌻 Sunflower Complex

Ukraine has harvested 93% of its sunflower area (4.8M ha), improving slightly week-on-week but still behind last year. Total production stands at 9.02M tonnes versus 10.2M tonnes last season, a 12% decline. Yields remain weak at 1.88 t/ha — about 10% below last year’s 2.10 t/ha.

Vegetable oil exports are expected to soften in November – December amid weaker global demand and a seasonal slowdown. October already showed a 6% YoY drop.

Ukrainian SFO prices:

– $1,220 – 1,230/mt ports December

– $1,300 – 1,310/mt CIF WCI

– $1,315/mt Mersin

RBD SFO reached a new low at $1,330 FCA Ukraine.

Also, the Chornomorsk port was attacked again, destroying several containers and complicating logistics for both buyers and sellers.

Meanwhile, Russia’s sunflower harvest is in the final stage, with yields at 1.7–2.0 t/ha (similar to last year). Russian origin SFO is offered at $1,292/mt for December.

The overall sentiment remains mildly bearish, with gradual price softening.

🫘 Soy Complex

Soy markets stay cautious:

Argentina faces weaker new-crop soyoil bids and may cut soybean area by ~1M ha.

US policy delays continue to add volatility to CBOT.

Brazil expands acreage but deals with dryness and weak meal demand.

Russia’s harvest is ~86% complete (~4.7M ha) with an output of 8.6M t, as progress is slowed by high moisture.

India’s soyoil market is tightening: imports are falling, support holds at 1,210–1,220 UAH/kg (≈$30–$31/kg), and local prices have room to rise by 2–3 rupees/kg, making dips a buying opportunity.

🌴 Palm Oil

Palm oil remains fundamentally weak. Forward prices are easing, production in Malaysia and Indonesia is high, exports are soft, and stocks are building. The wide discount to soyoil limits any upside. Indian imports stay low, keeping FOB values under pressure.

China’s palm stocks rose to 71.8k tonnes, confirming a comfortable supply and limited upside potential.

🌱 Rapeseed Complex

Russia’s rapeseed harvest is largely finished, with a near-record crop expected.

In contrast, China’s rapeseed oil stocks fell to 66.8k tonnes, and seed stocks dropped sharply (–61.6% YoY), indicating a tight rapeseed complex, especially in southern regions. This supports firmer RSO prices ahead.

Canada’s canola crush hit a 12-month high in October at 1.03M tonnes, with 2.9M tonnes processed in the first three months of the 2025/26 season—a record start.

The rapeseed complex remains structurally tight, supported by strong Canadian crush and firm product demand.

🌐 Global Outlook

Global markets stay on edge due to the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict, rising tensions around Venezuela, and unresolved Canada–China canola issues. Severe weather in Indonesia and Malaysia may slow palm output. Sunflower oil remains under pressure, keeping the vegoil complex highly sensitive to energy and weather shocks.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!