Near-term vegetable oil markets remain supported by crude oil, biodiesel demand, and logistics risks. However, growing supply from Argentina, Russia, and the EU new crop is building forward pressure.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated, particularly in the Middle East. In the Black Sea, intensified strikes on Ukrainian ports are increasingly disrupting exports and complicating logistics. Elevated freight and logistics costs continue to support delivered prices despite weaker fundamentals.

Current price levels already reflect elevated geopolitical risks and high energy costs, which continue to underpin the broader vegetable oil complex. Importantly, demand for vegetable oils remains resilient rather than declining, providing a floor to the market despite ongoing volatility.