The vegetable oil market is shifting amid geopolitical tensions, changing trade policies, and rising soybean oil demand driven by U.S. biofuel policies. Sunflower oil faces challenges from high prices, while China’s falling soybean oil prices impact margins. We expect high volatility, with soybean oil strengthening its position.

The global grains and oils markets remain impacted by regulations, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical factors. With Ukraine’s export limits and Russia’s rising duties, as well as China’s tax changes, higher prices and tighter liquidity are likely in the coming months.

Following the U.S. election results, metals saw declines, while oil, gas, and agricultural commodities rebounded. Corn and wheat rose, and soybeans moderated losses due to rising soy oil futures. A stronger dollar makes U.S. grain exports more expensive, potentially impacting the country’s agricultural trade, particularly with soybeans, which may face reduced purchases from China if tariffs are imposed.