Early November

Hello everyone, 

It’s time for a fresh update on the food oil industry.

Harvest Results

As of early November, Ukraine has harvested over 67M tons of grain and oilseeds. 

• Sunflower harvest is 94% complete and amounted to 11.31M tons.

• Soybean harvest is 97% complete and amounted to 4.64 million tons.

In Russia, sunflower harvesting is 90% complete with a total harvest of 16.4M tons. 

Meanwhile, Argentina forecasts a sunflower production of 4M tons for the 2024/25 season, up from 3.6M tons last year.

SFO Prices and Market Trends

The average price for sunflower seeds in Ukraine is currently at ₴25,178 (~$610) per ton with VAT and is expected to reach ₴27,000 (~$655) as farmers are holding back sales, pushing prices up. In Odessa, oil is priced at $1,150 per metric ton (CPT), while RBD oil is at $1,250 (EXW).

European port prices for sunflower oil show fluctuations.

• January to March contracts are priced at $1,290, 

• April to June contracts are at $1,305 (FOB).

In the Black Sea region, Ukrainian sunflower oil is offered at $1,210 per ton, while Russian sunflower oil sells at $1,200 (CIF Mersin, delivered Nov-Dec). Buyer activity remains limited.

Turkey's Sunflower Import

According to Germany’s Oil World, Turkey imported 350k tons of sunflower oil in the 2023/24 marketing year – 200k less than in the previous year and the lowest mark in three years. This reduction is due to fewer supplies from Ukraine and increased exports reducing Turkey’s domestic reserves. The country’s own sunflower production is also low for the second year.

India's Veg Oil Import and SFO Price

Prices for Russian-origin sunflower oil in India gained an average of $35 per ton, reaching $1,280 - $1,290 for December delivery. The first shipment following duty adjustments is expected this week. India’s stocks have been sufficient to cover recent holidays, and high prices are likely to support local vegetable oil crops.

The country imported over 800k metric tons of palm oil in October, a notable increase from September’s 555k tons. However, imports are expected to drop back to 500k tons in November. India’s total vegetable oil imports for the 2024-25 season are projected to decrease to 15M tons as favorable weather conditions may boost domestic production.

Global Veg Oil Market Trends

Sunflower oil prices continue to follow the trends in palm oil and CBOT. Palm oil price (KLC, January) recently reached a peak of 5,000 ringgit, with forecasts suggesting potential increases to 6,000–7,000 ringgit in forward months. This price increase reflects a seven-week upward trend in global vegetable oil prices.

Indonesia shows declining palm oil production along an increased use in biodiesel blends. This trend may lead to higher shelf prices for vegetable oils globally, possibly prompting government intervention with new regulations and export controls in sensitive markets.

U.S. Election

Following the U.S. election results, metals saw declines, while oil, gas, and agricultural commodities rebounded. Corn and wheat rose, and soybeans moderated losses due to rising soy oil futures. A stronger dollar makes U.S. grain exports more expensive, potentially impacting the country’s agricultural trade, particularly with soybeans, which may face reduced purchases from China if tariffs are imposed.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention. And stay tuned in for new updates!