End of November

Ladies and gentlemen,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the veg oil market.

General Market Trends

The market is reacting to potential U.S. tariffs and the incoming administration’s policies, which can significantly impact the biofuels industry. Notably, the growing use of imported used cooking oil (UCO) as a feedstock is under scrutiny. All of this supports CME soybean oil futures, which surged on November 26. Meanwhile, Asian vegetable oil markets are mixed, and European rapeseed futures have declined.  

Soybeans and Soybean Oil 

Global soybean processing increased by 14% in October 2024 (vs 2023) and reached 29.8M tons, driven by record figures in Argentina and the US.

In China, soybean oil prices dropped by nearly 1,000 RMB/ton in two weeks, lowering crushing profits and prompting oil factories to raise meal prices.

Meanwhile, Ukraine harvested 99% of its soybean crop as of November 21, producing 6M metric tons (up from 4.77M in 2023/24) with the average yield of 2.3 t/ha.  

As for the prices:

• Indian March-April AMJJ soybean oil trades were reported at $1,045/MT. 

• Crude soybean oil prices in Hamburg were at €1,070/MT for December and €1,050/MT for January-February. 

• Ukraine’s offer prices for crude soybean oil (FCA factory) were $1,040/MT and $1,080/MT DAP Poland Border.   

Sunflower and Sunflower Oil

A summer heatwave reduced Ukraine’s sunflower crop by 20%, but the increased global oil prices offset the 2.5 million-ton shortfall, with oil exports to rise by $300 million. Ukraine’s SFO offers include spot prices of $1,120–$1,100 CPT Chornomorsk and $1,250 FCA RBD oil. The country’s cash market still inactive and prices come down due to no possibility to arrange the shipment . A big part of container business is halted, awaiting December 1st for new rules .  

Turkey abolished its 8% duty on sunflower seed imports within a quota, with imports outside the quota subject to a reduced 12% duty (previously 27%). 

Russian sunflower oil export duties will increase from $90 in December to $130–$140 in January, as the Ministry of Agriculture adjusts price monitoring periods.

India is requesting Russian-origin sunflower oil prices to drop to $1,230/MT. However, the commodity remains $210 pricier than soybean oil, losing the market share in India and Nepal.  

Trade and Geopolitical Developments

As of 2024, Ukrainian ports have exported 53.5M metric tons of agricultural commodities, including 5.3M tons of sunflower oil ($4.4 billion), 25.5M tons of corn ($4.2 billion), and 19M tons of wheat ($3.4 billion). 

Polish farmers threaten to block checkpoints on the Polish-Ukrainian border their demands are not met by the government by December 10.  

Used Cooking Oil (UCO) and Biofuels

The U.S. is considering strict measures against UCO imports, including potential tariffs. This would drive demand toward soybean oil as a substitute feedstock. China is set to reduce export rebates for UCO starting December 1.   

Summary and Market Outlook

The vegetable oil market is shifting amid geopolitical tensions, changing trade policies, and rising soybean oil demand driven by U.S. biofuel policies. Sunflower oil faces challenges from high prices, while China’s falling soybean oil prices impact margins. We expect high volatility, with soybean oil strengthening its position.

Thank you for your attention.