Mid December

Dear ladies and gentlemen, 

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the global food oil market. 

Sunflower

The uncertainty in the sunflower market persists, with oil prices under pressure and processing still unprofitable. 

Ukraine’s sunflower harvest reached 10.2 million tons, with seed prices at UAH 25,000 - 26,000 per ton (down from a peak of UAH 27,000).

Port buying prices are as follows (per metric ton):

• UKR SFO CPT – USD 1,100

• UKR SFO Dec-Jan CIF Mersin – USD 1,170 vs. 1,150

• RBD SFO EXW – USD 1,210

HOSO premiums in Europe remain stable.

Seed sales in Ukraine are slow due to electricity issues and halted exports, prompting crushers to cease operations. Current price softness stems from volume and external pressure, though futures prices may rise.

Meanwhile, Russia’s sunflower oil exports reached 4.99 million tons in Jan-Nov 2024 (up 24% YoY), dominating the country’s total vegetable oil exports with a 70% share. 

Main buyers:

• India: 1.96 million tons

• Turkey: 0.72 million tons

• China: 0.55 million tons

SFO prices for India are USD 1,225 - 1,250 CNF, with local trades at USD 1,110 - $1,120. This creates a disparity and buyers now look for a USD 1,180 price level. Turkish stocks were at multi-year lows in November.

As expected, Russian SFO duties will rise as follows:

• December: RUB 9,000

• January: ~ RUB 25,000

• February: ~ RUB 35,000

The ruble strengthened, dropping the dollar from 107 to 99 rubles and impacting exports.

Soybean

Ukraine achieved a record soybean harvest of 6 million tons in 2024. However, soybean meal prices remain under pressure and with limited buyers. Meanwhile, oil demand is high in both the EU and the Middle East.

Current prices are as follows:

• CDSBO CPT – USD 1,040

• SBO meal FOB – USD 360

The USDA increased its forecast for global oilseed production in 2024/25 to 683.38 million tons (up from 657.49 million tons in 2023/24), including that of soybeans – by 1.74 million tons. Despite higher biodiesel usage (up 5%), CBOT soy oil losses remain limited.

Rapeseed

In November 2024, Ukrainian rapeseed exports decreased for the third consecutive month, totaling 327,000 tons (down 31% from October). Farming sales are also slow this season.

Globally, rapeseed oil became the cheapest vegetable oil due to decreased buying from China. The USDA reduced its rapeseed production forecast for 2024/25 by 1.06 million tons, offsetting increases in soybean and cotton forecasts.

Palm

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks are expected to drop to 1.7 million tons in December, with production falling to 1.4 million tons due to rain. KLC futures are declining due to demand erosion caused by the high price spread compared to soybean oil.

Market Outlook

Overall, the vegetable oil market faces volatility. 

Sunflower oil struggles with high seed costs and halted operations, while Russia’s exports grow. Soybean oil sees strong demand, but meal prices lag. Rapeseed oil is the cheapest option, and palm oil stocks decline as high prices limit demand.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned in for the next update!