Start of July

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

Ukraine has begun its grain harvest, with 188k tonnes harvested to date. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy forecasts a 10% drop in total grain production (down to 51M tonnes), broken down as follows:

- Corn: 26M t- Wheat: 20–22M t- Barley: 4.5Mt- Sunflower: 11.5M t- Sugar beet: 11M t

🌻 Sunflower Market

Last week, sunflower seed purchase prices in Ukraine rose to $555–565/tonne (ex-VAT) for seeds with 50% oil content, delivered to processing plants – driven by a stronger USD exchange rate and growing SFO prices.

Current market levels:

- CPT Odessa: ~$1,100 per tonne- RBD SFO (FCA): $1,220 per tonne

Processors are actively securing raw materials for July-August. However, analysts anticipate a price decline due to increased global supply of soybean and rapeseed oils, lowering palm oil prices, and weakening of the crude oil market.

Russian SFO trades at around $1,200 CIF India for July–August. New crop prices are ~$100 lower, with support at $1,080 and resistance near $1,150.

India’s buyers appear willing to wait for the new harvest and plan to book October–December positions in August.

Global sunflower production for 2025/26 is forecast to reach 56.2M tonnes (up 8%), led by Russia, the EU, Ukraine, and Turkey.

Russia remains the top producer, with sunflower planting up 930k ha this season. With that, the country’s total production is forecast at 19.1–19.6M tonnes.

Current prices in Russia are as follows:

CSFO:- RUB 94,000 per tonne incl. 10% VAT- RUB 85,455 per tonne excl. VAT (~$1,088)

Refined Deodorized Oil (bulk):

- RUB 104,000 per tonne incl. 10% VAT- RUB 94,545 per tonne excl. VAT (~$1,204)

Meanwhile, Russia’s export duty on sunflower oil in July is RUB 4,739.3 per tonne (~USD 60.40).

In July – September,  sunflower production may decline as processors prioritize rapeseed and soybean crushing due to better margins. July offers of $1,175 CIF Mersin saw little buying interest. Turkey’s 2024/25 stock is forecasted at  203k tonnes (slightly down YoY). And

China is increasing imports, with bids around $1,180 for Ukrainian CSFO. 

Overall, the demand is expected to rise in August–September.

🌱Soybean Market

U.S. growing conditions are nearly ideal at the moment, while Brazil is set for a record harvest, keeping the outlook bearish. Meanwhile, the U.S. faces EU export challenges due to tariffs while Brazil’s market share increases.

China’s soybean imports from the U.S. are down 31%. India recently booked OND soybean oil at ~$1,075 per tonne. And Ukraine is offering CPT at $1,050 per tonne (limited volume).

🌿Rapeseed Market

Global 2025 harvest is at ~18.9M tonnes due to higher acreage and yields. Canada’s 2025/26 production remains steady at ~18M tonnes. And EU consumption is at 25.26M tonnes, with imports accounting for ~5.8M tonnes.

Overall, the market shows stable supply, but bearish pricing:

- EU August 2025 futures: €474 per tonne

- Ukraine CPT Izmail: UAH 25,500 per tonne (1,000 t bid)

- Russia offers new season rapeseed oil at RUB 75 per kg

- Belarusian offers: €950 per tonne DAP Latvia (spot) and $1,010 per tonne EXW (new season).

- Moldova: $460–470 per tonne FCA

Tariffs from the U.S. and China are expected to impact the new season trade.

Thank you for your attention.