End of may

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the vegetable oil market.

🌱 Soy Complex

CBOT soybean oil remained relatively stable throughout May 2026:

– 30 April 2026 — $1,643/MT

– 18 May 2026 — $1,667/MT

– 21 May 2026 — $1,629/MT

South American FOB soybean oil levels also held firm.

Argentina FOB June:

– 20 May 2026 — $1,183/MT

– 21 May 2026 — $1,177/MT

Brazil FOB June:

– 19 May 2026 — $1,200/MT

– 20 May 2026 — $1,201/MT

Current reference levels:

– Argentina FOB: ~$1,177–1,183/MT

– Brazil FOB: ~$1,200–1,201/MT

The Argentine soybean oil market remains firm, with forward shipment prices staying nearly flat versus nearby cargoes for up to four months ahead. This reflects stable forward demand and limited pressure to discount future shipments.

Meanwhile, soymeal remains competitive globally:

– Argentina FOB: $360–363/MT

– Brazil FOB: $349–354/MT

– USA Gulf: $393–404/MT

India continues to support the vegetable oils complex with solid domestic demand and active buying despite stable international pricing. China, by contrast, remains cautious and is not aggressively buying vegetable oils at the moment.

The key focus remains on Brazil.

Despite firm CBOT soybean oil futures supported by biofuel expectations, Brazil continues offering physical soybean oil at discounted export levels. This indicates that physical demand remains weaker than futures sentiment suggests.

Brazil harvested a very large soybean crop, but crushing growth has been slower than expected, limiting oil production growth, too. Looking ahead, Brazil’s biodiesel policy may become the key market driver. Higher blending mandates could absorb additional soybean oil domestically rather than pushing it into export markets.

🌻 Sunflower Oil

The sunflower oil market remains relatively stable in FOB terms, although fundamentals are becoming increasingly mixed.

Global sunflower oil exports reached 13.4 M tons during the 2025–2026 season and are projected to increase to 15.59 M tons.

Current FOB indications:

– Ukraine Sunflower Oil (Spot) ~ $1,385/MT and (Forward) ~ $1,385/MT

– Russia Sunflower Oil (Spot) ~$1,375/MT

– Europe FOB ~ $1,505/MT

– Argentina June/July ~ $1,300/MT

The main story remains supply.

Argentina reached a historic milestone in sunflower seed crushing, with March–April 2026 processing exceeding 0.5 M tons per month for the first time. Strong seed availability and attractive crush margins continue supporting both production and export availability.

🌾 Rapeseed / Canola Oil

Rapeseed oil fundamentals remain stronger than expected and continue to be driven primarily by supply concerns rather than demand growth.

In Europe, weather remains the key bullish factor. Dry conditions and late frosts have reduced yield expectations across France, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Lithuania.

The EU rapeseed crop is currently forecast at around 20.88 M tons for 2026 — slightly above last year’s level but still below earlier market expectations.

Canadian canola futures also remain firm:

– July 2026 ~ 751 CAD/MT

– November 2026 ~ 760 CAD/MT

– January 2027 ~ 768 CAD/MT

China continues competing aggressively for Canadian canola supplies, supporting global rapeseed pricing. At the same time, El Niño concerns are adding uncertainty to Australia’s new crop outlook.

Europe Rapeseed Oil FOB indications:

– June 2026 — €1,200/MT

– July 2026 — €1,142/MT

– August 2026 — €1,142/MT

Unlike soy, rapeseed is currently trading on its own fundamentals: weather risks, tight Canadian supply competition, and weaker Australian crop expectations.

🌴 Palm Oil

Current FOB palm oil indications:

– Malaysia RBD Olein ~ $1,170/MT

– Indonesia RBD Olein ~ $1,140/MT

– Malaysia CPO ~ $1,248/MT

Palm oil remains the cheapest vegetable oil globally and continues supporting consumption switching.

According to Oil World (Germany), palm oil exports are forecast to decline by 2 M tons during April–September 2026, which could provide significant support across the entire vegetable oils complex.

Additional support factors include ongoing discussions around Indonesian export controls and further biodiesel expansion.

Current spreads

India:

– Soydegum June ~1,292

– Sunoil June ~1,415

– RBD Palm ~1,195

China:

– Soyoil ~1,242

– Palm ~1,393

Buyer behaviour remains cautious — refiners continue optimizing blends, nearby buying is preferred over long positions, and physical demand remains stronger than futures demand.

📌 Market Outlook

Short conclusion:

– Soy → neutral

– Palm → stable to slightly supportive

– Sunflower → stable

– Rapeseed → strongest fundamentals

Macro factors such as energy markets and government policy are becoming increasingly important, gradually overtaking traditional supply-and-demand dynamics as the main market drivers.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!