Start of June

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the vegetable oil market.

🌱 Soybean Oil

CBOT soybean oil continued to outperform the broader soy complex over the past week.

– July SBO price grew by +2.72 c/lb to reach 76.70 c/lb.

– August gained 2.61 c/lb to reach 75.07 c/lb

– September added 2.57 c/lb to reach 73.72 c/lb.

In tonne terms, July soybean oil increased from $1,631/MT to $1,691/MT, gaining approximately $60/MT in just one week.

Meanwhile, soybean futures were largely unchanged. July soybeans remained flat at 11.94 bu, while November soybeans increased from 11.73 bu to 11.94 bu (+0.21 bu).

The rally is being driven primarily by the oil side rather than meal or beans.

Argentina FOB soybean oil moved higher, with July rising from $1,161/MT to $1,184/MT (+$23/MT) and August from $1,142/MT to $1,166/MT (+$24/MT).

Argentina’s soybean harvest is now 84.6% complete, with production estimated at 50.1 M MT. The large crop supports crushing activity and additional soybean oil exports, increasing global supply availability.

Brazil FOB soybean oil also strengthened. July increased from $1,179/MT to $1,195/MT (+$16/MT), while August rose from $1,173/MT to $1,184/MT (+$11/MT).

South American exporters have not fully passed through the CBOT rally, as weaker basis levels continue to offset part of the gains.

Key Technical Levels (CBOT Soybean Oil)

– Support: 75.00 c/lb

– Immediate resistance: 77.00 c/lb

– Bullish target: 80.00 c/lb

– Extreme bullish scenario: 82.00–85.00 c/lb

A close above 77 c/lb could attract additional fund buying and push values toward 80–82 c/lb, equivalent to roughly $1,760–1,810/MT.

Driving factors:

– Strong US biofuel demand

– Renewable diesel producers continuing to absorb soybean oil

– Palm oil stocks remaining manageable

– Recovery in Indian imports for July–August coverage

– Weather risks emerging in the US growing season

Limiting factors:

– Record South American soybean production

– Large bean availability in Brazil and Argentina

– Weak Chinese soybean demand growth

– Fund profit-taking after the recent rally

The latest COT report showed the largest commodity fund outflows in approximately 14 months, suggesting managed money is reducing exposure rather than pricing in a major supply shortage.

India CIF Soy Degum increased:

– $1,286/MT for June (+$9/MT)

– $1,277/MT for July (+$4/MT).

India remains under-covered from July onward, prompting aggressive buying and improving basis levels.

Current spreads stand at:

– CPO vs Soy Degum: -$41/MT

– RBD Olein vs Soy Degum: -$91/MT

– Sunflower Oil vs Soy Degum: +$139–148/MT

🇨🇳 China

Chinese soybean prices weakened further, with July falling by $13/MT and September by $12/MT. Soymeal remained unchanged.

Meanwhile, soyoil continued higher, with July reaching $1,256/MT and September $1,263/MT. Palm oil also gained, trading at $1,417/MT for September and $1,447/MT for January 2027.

India saw CPO rise by $50/MT and Soy Degum by $9/MT over the week.

The key story remains unchanged: vegetable oils are firm while soybean markets remain weak. This continues to support soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, while offering less support to meal and raw beans.

🌴 Palm Oil

Palm oil posted a second consecutive week of gains, gaining 1.09%.

The Indonesian B50 biodiesel program continues to underpin prices, while the June Indonesian CPO reference price stands at $1,029.51/MT.

BMD Palm Oil Futures are currently trading at 4,535 RM/MT ($1,144/MT):

– Support at 4,450 RM

– Resistance at 4,600 RM

– Upside targets at 4,700–4,800 RM.

Forward months continue strengthening as buyers cover Q3–Q4 requirements.

FOB Indonesia values currently stand at $1,205/MT for June CPO and $1,130/MT for June RBD Olein.

Malaysia currently trades at roughly a $50/MT premium to Indonesia, reflecting stronger demand and tighter availability.

Palm oil remains the strongest vegetable oil market today. As long as BMD holds above 4,450 RM, the market may continue testing 4,600–4,800 RM, potentially pushing CPO toward $1,300/MT.

🌾 Rapeseed Oil

Expected global rapeseed production is projected at 37.2 M MT, up 2.7 M MT year-on-year.

Rapeseed oil remains the strongest market within the soft oils complex.

Dutch FOB rapeseed oil rose sharply, with June reaching EUR 1,380/MT (+EUR 100/MT week-on-week) and July climbing to EUR 1,300/MT (+EUR 80/MT).

Canadian canola futures continue to strengthen:

– July at CAD 767/MT

–  November at CAD 779/MT

– January 2027 at CAD 786/MT

Tight European supplies and stronger canola futures continue to support rapeseed oil values.

🌻 Sunflower Oil

Sunflower oil remains the most expensive major vegetable oil globally.

Current FOB values:

–  $1,385/MT in Ukraine

– $1,375/MT in Russia

– $1,505/MT in Europe

– $1,320/MT in Argentina.

Argentina’s sunflower seed harvest has been completed, with production estimated at 6.6 M MT.

Black Sea sunflower oil prices were largely unchanged during the week. Ukraine remained near $1,385/MT, while Russian offers stayed around $1,375/MT. Black Sea-origin sunflower oil traded near $1,405/MT.

Indian buyers continue to face sunflower oil premiums of roughly $140–150/MT over soybean oil.

Expected sunflower seed production is projected at 23.5 M MT, up 2.6 M MT year-on-year, with growth expected mainly in Ukraine, Russia, and European Union

This keeps the fundamental outlook for sunflower oil bearish-to-neutral.

The EU vegetable oils balance sheet for 2026/27 estimate for sunflower oil:

– Production at 3.408 M MT (+6% YoY)

– Imports at 2.230 M MT (+6% YoY)

– Domestic consumption at 4.891 M MT (+3% YoY).

📊 Conclusion & Outlook

Current fundamentals suggest the global vegetable oils market remains well supplied heading into the second half of 2026.

Unless significant weather issues emerge in North America, South America, the Black Sea region, or major geopolitical disruptions occur—such as issues in the Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea logistics, or changes to Indonesian export policy—the market does not currently support a strongly bullish outlook.

– Soybean Oil: Bearish

– Sunflower Oil: Neutral to slightly bearish

– Rapeseed Oil: Strongest among major soft oils

For buyers, fundamentals remain favorable. For sellers, competition is expected to stay intense, leaving limited room for substantial price appreciation based solely on supply-and-demand dynamics.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!