Mid October

Hello everyone, Please enjoy a fresh overview of the global food oil market.

🌻 Sunflower Oil & Seeds

Ukraine’s sunflower crop forecast was cut to 11.4 MMT — the lowest in a decade, as drought has hit key southern regions while rains delayed harvest elsewhere, potentially causing further losses. Meanwhile, CPT bids reached ~$1,260/ton while Ukrainian and Russian FOB levels hold at $1,255–1,270/ton, supported by tight farmer selling and limited export offers. Trading remains thin as processors focus on domestic demand and logistics bottlenecks limit new shipments.

European FOB values jumped to $1,470/ton, reflecting stronger import demand and lower local availability. Argentina's offers remain lower, staying competitive in Asian destinations. Offers are at $1,300 CIF Mersin vs bids at $1,280–1,285 — with few sellers and limited liquidity. Sunflower meal holds steady at $278 CIF Egypt and $280 CIF Italy. RBD oil offers stand near $1,330/ton.

Power outages in Ukraine signaled energy strain that can delay production and increase costs during peak demand months, while the October 9 attack on a Maersk terminal further disrupted veg oil container shipments.

Russia’s sunflower sowing area for 2025 is estimated at 9.7 M ha. Prices remain supported by low stocks, a weaker ruble, and higher global veg oil prices. However, weather may pressure yields. The country’s October exports were minimal, with November export duty forecast at $86/ton (down from $106/ton in October).

🌱 Soy Complex

Soybean oil maintains a $150–160/ton discount versus Black Sea sun oil, keeping pressure on SFO margins. CBOT soybean and soy oil futures firmed slightly through the week, supported by export demand and overall firmness in vegetable oil markets.

Prices are as follows:

– Soy oil FOB Brazil: ~ $1,121/ton

– Soy meal FOB Brazil: steady at $298–302/ton

The soy complex remains stable, with limited upside unless new Asian demand emerges or South American weather shifts.

🌾 Rapeseed and EU Market

EU rapeseed crop forecast for 2025/26 was raised to 19 M tons (up from 18.74 M). Meanwhile, Ukraine’s rapeseed oil output has hit a record 250 k tons in September, with the EU remaining the main buyer.

🌴 Palm Oil Outlook

Palm oil prices are expected to stay firm into early 2026, as inventories tighten and PKO stocks fall 30% y/y. BMD futures are to rise after Nov–Dec, once peak production ends. The US biodiesel policy remains the main price driver.

📊 Q4 Market Outlook

To sum it all up: Sunflower oil demand remains strong amid low stocks. Despite Russia’s record crop, tight supplies keep the prices firm. The US biodiesel mandate supports higher CBOT prices. Ongoing China–Canada talks can reopen access for Canadian canola, lifting optimism in global oilseed trade. Canada’s 2025 canola crop is forecast to rise 4.1% y/y, reaching 20.0 M tons.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention and stay tuned for the next update!