Mid November

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🌻 Sunflower Seed & Oil

Ukraine has harvested 4.74M ha of sunflower (91% of the planned area), almost matching last year’s 4.77M ha. Total output reached 8.91M tonnes, down 1.05M tonnes from 2024 (-11%).

Russia has harvested 86% of its area, collecting 16.04M tonnes of sunflower from 10.41M ha. The area is up 3.7% y/y, but production is still 3.4% below the 16.61M tonnes harvested by this date last year.

Russia CSFO trades around $1,300 for late-Nov/early-Dec shipment. As freight and export duties are rising and the ruble stays firm, crushers have minimal seed coverage and farmers remain reluctant to sell at current levels. Some $1,300–1,330 trades to Turkey were completed a few weeks ago, but the market has since stalled.

Indicative demand levels for container trade: 

– India $1,310–1,320 

– China ~ $1,270

Ukraine CPT levels stand near $1,230, with low FCA indications around $1,200. RBD sunoil is offered at $1,340–1,350. Supply remains tight, limiting price swings and there is additional pressure from electricity issues in Ukraine.

Meawnhile, Russia is expected to stay active in exports through December.

🫘 Soybean Oil

Key drivers ahead:

– U.S. record crushing is increasing soy oil stocks and adding bearish pressure.

– India’s sharply lower edible oil inventories point to strong import demand.

– China shows mixed trends: soy and rapeseed oil stocks are slightly declining, while palm oil surged by over 10% in a week.

South American FOB values remain firm at $1,080–1,110, supported by tight farmer selling and volatile basis.

In India, soybean arrivals and stocks continue to decline while soymeal prices rise, supporting crush margins and future oil demand.

Ukraine CDSBO supply is limited, with active EU demand at $1,150 FCA / $1,180 EU border.

Russia is workable for GCC at $1,170–1,200 (non-GMO), though volumes are tight. Argentina is offering only vessel shipments. Egypt and Turkey are inactive sellers, so India remains the key seller of RBD SBO to GCC.

🌾 Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil

The RSO forward curve continues to ease and prices are trending lower into 2026, with Dec-25 trades around EUR 1,092–1,072.

Ukraine rapeseed remains firm on limited supply and support from strong sunoil markets. Russian rapeseed prices increased, while Belarusian origin has softened on weaker China demand and continued EU border restrictions.

Overall, rapeseed oil fundamentals remain mixed, and the market will need time to rebalance.

🌴 Palm Oil Market

Palm olein FOB Malaysia continues drifting lower, trading near recent lows at $1,020–1,040/MT with deferred months showing limited recovery. Its wide discount to soy oil keeps palm highly competitive, especially for India and China.

A softer ringgit, stable crude, and a firm USD create supportive conditions in the near term. With the ringgit still weak, palm oil retains room to hold or edge higher despite global volatility.

🌍 Global Vegetable Oils & FAO Outlook

FAO’s latest update indicates global vegetable oil consumption will exceed production due to lower soybean output in key origins. This suggests tight supply and generally supportive pricing across soy, palm, and sunflower oil.

Olive oil production is recovering and we see easing tightness in that segment, but overall global vegetable oil demand remains strong.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!