Mid July

Hello Everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the global veg oil market.

🌻 Sunflower Oil Market: Supply Tightens, Exports Surge

Ukraine’s harvest progress remains slower compared to last year. From September to June 2024/25, the country processed approximately 10.5 – 10.6M tons of oilseeds (down 21% YoY) — one of the lowest levels since 2016/17.

Despite this, SFO exports are gaining momentum. In the first half of July, Ukraine exported 270k tons — up 76% from June. Key buyers include the EU (38%) and India (31%), with India leading the season overall at 729k tons. At the season’s end, SFO market is trending upwards, with limited supply and few sellers in Ukraine. 

Ukraine exports SFO primarily through six ports, with 6P FOB prices as follows:

• AS – $1,235 vs $1,200

• OND – $1,230 vs $1,205

• JFM - $1,225 vs $1,200

RBD SFO from Ukraine is offered at $1,235 FCA Odessa, and bottled sunflower oil is priced at $1.26/litre.

Meanwhile, Russia’s export duty on SFO decreased from 7,119.8 RUB/t in June to 4,739.3 RUB/t in July, with analysts expecting further reductions. FOB Russia offers stand at $1,135 – 1,145, while Turkey (Mersin) bids $1,170 and offers $1,190. In India, prices reached $1,220 bid / $1,240 offer.

📝 Oilseed Acreage & Yield Trends

In Russia, the oilseed sowing area is projected to hit a record 20.5 million hectares in 2025/26, surpassing wheat acreage in the Central Federal District for the first time — highlighting a major crop shift.

Ukraine’s sunflower sowing area has declined from 6.5M to just over 5M hectares since before 2022. While yields have typically exceeded 20 c/ha, forecasts indicate a 3 – 4% drop in gross harvest, mainly due to adverse weather. This may tighten domestic supply and impact exports, calling for more flexible market strategies.

❗New Export Duty on Ukrainian Oilseeds

Starting August 1, 2025, Ukraine will implement a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans, with exemptions for farmers and cooperatives exporting their own goods. Analysts expect export flows to continue under foreign currency contracts, but small farmers may be hit hardest. The key selling windows remain at season start and in September – October.

🌿 Rapeseed Oil: Tight Supply, EU Market Under Pressure

Russian and Belarusian rapeseed oil is currently unavailable due to strong commitments to China and tight seed supply, with the main harvest yet to begin. Prices remain firm amid low availability, with DAP Latvia offers starting at $1,050/MT.

On July 18, a Sodruzhestvo rapeseed tender (DAP KurskAgroTerminal, 15 days) failed to attract sellers. Bids stood near $431/MT net of 10% VAT, based on a RUB 37,000 offer and a 78 RUB/USD exchange rate.

EU crushing margins are reportedly weak, reducing rapeseed oil output. Meanwhile, Australia is nearing a breakthrough deal with China for 150k–250k MT of canola under test shipments. This follows relaxed phytosanitary rules, which may lift Australian prices (~$550 CIF China).

EU rapeseed imports in 2024/25 are at 7.4 MMT (+31%), distributed as follows:

• Australia – 47% (up from 33%)

• Ukraine – 32.4% (down from 55.6%)

EU prices are pressured by a weaker Australian crop outlook, increased Ukrainian supply (due to the export duty), and uncertainty over the Canada-China trade corridor.

Meanwhile, MATIF rapeseed futures (Nov 2025) gained €10.48, reaching €567.51/ton (as of July 17).

🌱 Soybean Oil: Rising Prices Amid Weather & Biofuel Demand

Soybean futures climbed for a third straight day on heat concerns in the U.S. and increased biofuel demand, reaching $10.35/bushel. U.S. mandates are driving soyoil futures to record highs.

In Brazil, 2025/26 soybean output is projected at a record 176 MMT, thanks to a larger planted area and favorable weather.

India CNF Prices:

• July – $1,210

• OND – $1,169

China’s soy stocks are building, but short-term supply remains tight, as the old crop is nearly depleted and the new crop is not yet ready. Weather in the U.S. and Argentina will be key price drivers going forward.

📊 Market Outlook: Firm Prices, But Volatility Ahead

While some price pressure may emerge with the harvest, strong demand due to the festival season in India is likely to support firmness across vegetable oil markets.

Rapeseed oil is expected to remain firm due to tight availability. Sunflower oil may continue to rise, especially with strong demand in India and seasonal Middle East buying (e.g., school season). Biofuel demand in EU, Indonesia, and USA remains a major support factor.