Late September

It was a pleasure to attend the Grain & Oil Conference 2025 in Tashken, Uzbekistan.

The country’s vegetable oil market is shifting fast: cotton oil use is declining, while sunflower and palm oil consumption are rising sharply. By August 2035, total demand is projected at 800k tonnes (up from 574k tonnes in August 2025). Imports remain strong, but the country is actively expanding its refining capacity to reduce dependency and build a modern oil-processing sector.

🌻 Kazakhstan Update – Oilseeds & Processing

Kazakhstan’s crush capacity exceeds 3 MMT across 40+ plants, but actual use is only ~40%. Sunflower currently holds just 3% of crop rotation, though policymakers and industry see potential to expand to 15%, significantly boosting seed supply.

The country is scaling both crushing and refining, with refined SFO increasingly offered into Central Asia and Europe.

🌍 Central Asia is emerging as a strategic hub:

– Kazakhstan drives wheat and lentil exports

– Uzbekistan leverages transit routes and builds self-sufficiency

– Afghanistan grows as a demand market

📦 India Vegetable Oil Imports (August 2025)

Imports rose to 1.67 M tonnes (+7% YoY), mainly from higher crude palm oil arrivals (~0.97 M tonnes, +40%). Refined palmolein collapsed to 8k tonnes (from 92k tonnes last year) after India widened the duty gap between CPO and refined palm oil from 8.25% to 19.25% on May 31. Meanwhile, soybean oil fell from 0.45 to ~0.36 M tonnes, and sunflower oil – from 0.28 to ~0.25 M tonnes.

Overall, edible oil imports declined by 7–8% YoY in Nov 2024 – Aug 2025. Mustard oil prices cooled, dragging the soy, palm, and sunflower complex lower.

Landed prices (August 2025):

– Soybean oil ~$1,190/tonne

– Sunflower oil ~$1,275/tonne

– CPO ~$1,180/tonne

The country’s oilmeal exports fell 12% YoY in August 2025 (276,834 vs 314,363 tonnes), while Apr–Aug shipments were at 1.79 MMT (down 4% YoY), reflecting weaker global demand.

🌱 Soybean Outlook

Soybean prices have retreated sharply from 2022 highs, easing costs for crushers and feed markets. U.S. crush capacity is booming: 23 new or expanded plants since 2022, with more coming, targeting a 22% increase by 2030.

South America remains key. Brazil is set for a record 175 MMT crop, while Argentina faces reduced output (48.5 MMT). Global soybean supply is expanding, driven by Brazil and U.S. processing, while sunflower oil remains a key growth driver in regional markets.

Soy oil FOB trading:

– Argentina: Oct $1,100 | Nov $1,095 | Dec $1,090

– Brazil: Oct $1,115 | Nov $1,105 | Dec $1,102

(Prices slipped from $1,150 peak on 16 Sept to $1,100 on 19 Sept.)

🇺🇦 Ukraine’s sunseed harvest outlook stays modest.

Domestic trade levels hover at UAH 27,000+ per tonne (~USD 680), keeping input costs high.

📊 Overall, Central Asia and India remain pivotal in shaping edible oil flows. Watching policy shifts, refining capacity growth, and farmer incentives will be key to anticipating the next move in global veg oil trade.

Thank you for your attention.