Late October

Hello everyone, 

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🌻 Sunflower Oil: Weak Harvest, Falling Exports

Ukraine’s SFO exports dropped 31% in the first nine months of 2025 – down to 3.2 M tons ($3.7B ≈ UAH 172B), pressured by a weak harvest. Last year’s record of $5.1B exports (21% of agri exports) is unlikely to be matched.

Sunflower processing also fell to a three-year low this September — the weakest since July 2022 (APK-Inform). Limited seed supply forced many plants to switch to rapeseed and soy, lifting their domestic stocks.

• 2025/26 sunflower processing forecast: 11–12M tons

• Total oilseed crushing (sunflower + rapeseed + soy): +3% y/y

Spot quotes: 

– CPT Ukraine port $1,280/MT

– FOB $1,300 CSFO

– RBD SFO $1,400/MT. 

Freight rates for bulk containers have surged.

In Russia: 

– FOB $1,260 CSFO

– RBD SFO $1,300 FOB. 

Major Russian plants are sold out until January, with few offers for November.

– Russian CIF Mersin offers: $1,360 December.

Turkey recently bought in a tender at $1,344, now bidding around $1,350.

– SFO 6P FOB (USD/MT): Nov 1,415/1,375, Dec 1,380/1,360.

🌱 Soybean Oil: Range-Bound but Supported by Biofuel Demand

SBO prices stay firm at $1,130–1,160/MT FOB, backed by biodiesel demand and steady energy markets. Large South American crops and weak Chinese imports limit upside.

Short-term range is at $1,100–1,180/MT FOB, with mild bullish bias if weather delays planting or biofuel margins improve. The sentiment is stable to slightly firm toward early Q1 2026.

Regional offers:

– AMJJ Kandla ;1,120 CNF

– Oct $1,190 CNF, Nov $1,185 CNF (Argentina, –20 BOZZ)

– Container Black Sea CDSBO offers – $1,160 CIF India port 

India shows a steady local and re-export RBD demand, with the country’s RBD soy oil remaining the most competitive in the region, while Egyptian prices rise amid tight supply.

🌾 Rapeseed Oil: Mild Recovery and Trade Uncertainty

Canadian canola futures rebounded from September lows (as of Oct 23) : 

– Nov 618.5 CAD/MT

– Jan 633.8 CAD/MT

– Mar 646.2 CAD/MT . 

The range is expected at 615–650 CAD/MT, slightly bullish on firm exports and limited farmer selling.

EU FOB rapeseed oil for Nov 2025 eased $3.66 – to $1,288/MT, staying within the $1,280–1,300 band.

China’s demand remains weak as buyers cover only short-term needs and await possible China–Canada trade talks.

– Russia FCA oil: $1,000–1,050

– Ukraine FCA oil: 1,100–1,120

🌴 Palm Oil: Consolidation After Rally

RBD Palmolein FOB Malaysia remains stable at $1,080–1,085/MT. After the September rally, the palm oil market entered consolidation.

Demand for biodiesel and food fats is moderate as China and India buy cautiously amid high stocks and seasonal slowdown.

Cheaper soybean and rapeseed oils plus higher Indonesian and Malaysian output weigh on prices. Meanwhile, Indian festive demand has ended, while Ramadan-related buying offers limited support for Nov–Dec.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention.