Late January

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

In the December 2023/2024 marketing year, about 672k tons of sunflower oil were exported from Ukraine. This is 25% more than in November and the maximum monthly volume of shipments since January 2022 .

USDA has increased its forecast for the export of veg oils from Ukraine in 2023/24 MY by 100k tons, expecting the country to export 6.4M tons of oils this season. 

Sunflower seed prices grew again in Ukraine, so farmer selling is limited. Ukraine's ports are active and see good demand from Turkey and Egypt, with buyer bids at $860-890 and sellers offer at $890-900. The main demand is for FEB shipments. 

As of Monday, Yuzne CPT buyer bid was at $785, and FOB Izmail – at $815 PMT. FCA Factory for CSFO offers are at $730-750. 

Container logistics begins to normalize with more offers in the market. 

Ukraine export is slowing down, mainly for meal and oil to China. Ukraine's port meal price is at $210-220.

Chinese bid for Ukraine oil continues to be very low – $830-850. Chinese future is under pressure. 

USDA forecasts Russia's production of CSFO at 6.815M mt, with export forecasted at 4.3M mt and the sunseed crop at 17,1M mt (2023/2024).The export of rapeseed oil in 2023 at 1,7M mt. The main market is China, with imports of almost 1,5M mt. 

Russia continues to focus on India's market, with offers at $950 and bids at 920-930. Egypt bought 47.5k MT in the GASC tender from Russia and Moldova, at a rate of $900. 

Ukraine's refined oil in bottle and bulk has been slow due to logistic concerns as many contracts were put on hold when the price jumped. This reflected on FCA refined oil prices, which are at $850-890 depending on the factory. The parity is at its lowest since the start of the season. Looking forward, the margin right now is better in CSFO than RBD SFO. 

Rapeseed oil export from Ukraine in the first half of 2023/24 (July-June) boosted to 356k mt, up ~6x YoY, APKInform reports. Rapeseed offers UKR FCA Odessa are at $360, FOB at $800 per MT. Chinese bid 890$ CIF 

Canada faces challenges in meeting the targets of the 2023-2024 canola export program, running one million mt behind. Canola traded at $628.30 (+1.30). Australia faced problems exporting seeds to the EU and Matif is positive that the May level will be 436 EUR +1.69%.

Soybean meal for March '24 traded at its lowest since the summer of 2022, holding as low as $351.30 .

SBO supply is still limited .

UKR CDSBO is offered at $720-750 FCA basis. 

KLC April has crossed its previous resistance of 3870 on еру daily chart. The overall technical structure looks strong and KLC might reach 4000-4030 levels before showing profit booking.

Overall, it seems we will see a bull run from 25 Jan, which could be till the end of Feb. The Ramadan demand and the logistic distribution will affect the market. Crude oil will support. The winter season can further affect the supply. 

Stay tuned in.