Late August

Hello everyone, here’s a fresh veg oil market update:

🌻 Ukraine Sunflower Crop 2025

Ukraine’s southern (Odesa, Kherson) and central regions were hit by drought, lowering yields. Other areas (Kirovohrad, Poltava, Mykolaiv, Odesa) held up, so the overall harvest (~13 MMT) is better than last year, and no domestic shortage is expected.

Same time, soil moisture (top 1 m) of just 0.25% shows severe stress, and mills are shifting to soy/rapeseed as sunflower supply tightens.

Price indications:

– Domestic oil: ₴58k–60k/t ($1,160–1,200 FCA)

– Exports: ~$1,180 FOB Aug | RBD $1,335

– Crush 2024/25: 12 MMT (still -3 MMT vs. pre-war)

📈 Global Trade

Sunflower stocks are tightening globally, with lower output in both Ukraine & Russia. The EU is stable but has limited influence. Firm demand will likely keep the prices high through 2025-26.

Buyers are cautious, awaiting clearer crop data. 

Russia’s crops are at ~17 MMT. Ukraine’s are at ~13 MMT, but risks remain in southern areas.

Price indications:

– India at ~$1,250/t Sep (UA) | $1,230/t Oct (RU). 

– Mersin cargoes trade at ~$1,210/t. 

– SFO 6 Port FOB: OND $1,270 vs. $1,240 | JFM $1,255 vs. $1,235. 

🌱 Rapeseed & Canola

Canada’s canola are for 2025/26 is at 8.68 Mha (8.85 Mha last year), with production forecast down to 17.6 MMT (19.2 MMT last year) due to lower expected tields. 

Exports are constrained by:

— China duties blocking ~40%

— US demand down by 28%

— Weak canola meal sales

Black Sea prices are rising on China news.

The Czech market is at this year’s high. 

Russia’s rapeseed trades at ~$1,185/bulk vessel. 

Ukraine’s rapeseed harvest reached 3.0 Mt (3.3 Mt in 2024), with exports down twice at 222k (444k last year). UA rapeseed meal trades at ~$180/t. 

EU biodiesel remains the main pull.

🌿 Soybean Complex

Argentina’s crush declines. June exports are at 0.59 MMT, likely to drop to ~0.4 MMT by September, causing firmer SBO prices. 

China’s crushing is at 2.24 MMT (slightly down over week but up over year).

Argentina’s SBO price is likely to hold above $1,080. 

CME soymeal 1M futures may dip to ~$255/t by Oct’25 before rebounding later. 

The oil/meal revenue split is now at 54/46. 

Black Sea offers are easing, while Egypt keeps steady US soy imports with the most competitive prices in the region.

🌴 Palm Oil

July 2025 palm oli exports are as follows: 

– Malaysia 1.35 MMT (+7% MoM), 

– Indonesia 2.3 MMT (-18%). 

Stocks are stable:

– Malaysia 2.18 MMT, – Indonesia 6.24 MMT. 

Festive demand is strong, while the supply is tight. 

Indonesia may raise export levy in 2026 to $200–250/t.

📌 Key Market Drivers:

– Strong India & China demand

– US biodiesel mandates

– Possible Indonesia levy hike

– Tight Russian SFO Sep–Oct

All factors point to firm-to-higher veg oil prices into 2025–26.