Late April

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

Ukraine has recently experienced a surge in attacks targeting its energy supply system, causing problems with power supply. Disturbing reports have emerged regarding the halting of production in some refinery crushers due to electricity-related issues. The recent attack on the Yuzhny port and subsequent airstrike on Delta Wilmar have sent shockwaves throughout the industry. DW stands as one of Ukraine's leading plants with foreign investment.

According to Spike Brokers, waterborne exports from Ukraine have reached nearly 3.5M metric tons since the start of the month. Key ports contributing to these exports include Chornomorsk with 1.3M metric tons, Pivdennyi with 880k metric tons, Odesa with 818k metric tons, and Danube with 456k metric tons. Despite the challenges, Ukraine maintains a healthy stock of oil. Cash oil has put some pressure on the market with a halt in exports. 

The situation with Delta Wilmar attacks on port areas may have repercussions on the (CPT) prices. Traders ought to be cautious and avoid storage in port areas, which could potentially lead to an increase in demand for loading from factories. Sunflower seed prices remain steady at last week's levels.

Here are the latest indications for SFS buyers:

• DAP Ukraine (regions) ~ $340-355

• CSFO CPT – $810-820 USD

• Factory level for refined oil – $900-935 USD

• HOSO premiums for crude oil ~ $150 

• Factory price for sunflower meal is around $170-190 CPT, with an offer of $195-200.

• On the international market, India's CIF level stands at $960-970, while Chinese buying levels range around $910-930. 

Analysts have revised their forecast for rapeseed production in Ukraine in 2024, estimating it to be around 4.3M tons.

Experts in the palm market predict a stable market for spot prices and advise waiting for future buying opportunities. Furthermore, climatic factors have the potential to significantly impact wheat prices on the global market, especially with the intensification of drought conditions in grain-producing regions of the Russia and neighboring countries. The EU's impending decision on import duties for Russia and Belarus may result in either an increase to €95 per tonne or a 50% ad valorem duty. Additionally, Russia and Belarus will no longer have access to any of the EU's WTO grain quotas that offer better tariff treatment for certain products.

Overall, while the oil market demand seems to be less aggressive during the summer, with consumption typically decreasing, the recent attacks on Ukraine's port area pose a high likelihood of increasing freight and insurance premiums, leading to potential effects on the industry.

That's all for now. Thank you for your attention and please let me know if there is anything else I can assist you with.