End of November

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🌻 Sunflower Seed & Sunflower Oil

Ukraine’s new-crop SFS harvest is estimated at 10.3–11.6M tonnes (12–12.7M tonnes last year), which implies a production deficit of 1.1–1.7M tonnes (about 9–14% YoY), depending on final results.

Since September, Ukraine has exported roughly 24.5k tonnes of SFS — around half of the projected potential. Exports remain limited by tight port capacity, rail delays, and inconsistent vessel schedules. This keeps Black Sea supply tight and supports prices despite softness in other vegoils.

Current market levels:

– CPT port $1,220–1,230/mt

– FOB $1,250–1,260/mt

– RBD SFO $1,360–1,400/mt

– EXW bottled oil $1.38–1.40 per 1L

– Ukrainian-origin SFO $1,315/mt CPT Mersin

For SFO 6P FOB, the market trades around:

– Dec: $1,370 vs $1,330

– JFM: $1,330 vs $1,317.5

– AMJ: $1,315 vs $1,300

European prices remain firm as strong EU crush margins keep refiners operating at high utilization. This steady demand prevents deeper price corrections.

Russia’s Aston is offering $1,303 vs $1,290 Mersin for Dec–Jan. The country’s SFO export duty for December 2025 is set to rise to 8,643 RUB/ton, pressuring export margins while FOB prices hover near $1,200/ton.

Russia’s SFS forecast was cut by the USDA from 18.3M tonnes to about 17.4M tonnes due to lower yields. The country’s SFO exports amounted to around 85k tonnes in October 2025 (down from September), but prices stayed firm at $1,210/mt FOB (+23% YoY).

Argentina’s Dec/Jan market trades around $1,220–1,230/mt with limited activity. Sunflower oil maintains a strong premium over soy oil — about $120–150/ton.India’s CNF SFO remains steady at $1,330–1,350/ton.

🫘 Soy Oil

The CBOT soy complex continues to weaken as soy oil and meal come under pressure. Argentina and Brazil FOB premiums have narrowed sharply, keeping FOB levels around $1,105–1,150/mt. Physical offers are rising faster than demand, resulting in softer sentiment.

Current offers:

– CIF ME: around $1,210

– India: about $1,170 for nearby

– Ukraine: trending higher against the global tone, near $1,150 FCA (demand mainly from Poland and Romania)

🌴 Palm Oil

Palm oil FOB remains soft at $1,020–1,050/ton. Demand from India and China is weak, and bearish BMD futures reinforce downside pressure. China’s vegoil demand has dropped sharply, weighing on the broader vegetable oil market.

🌾 Rapeseed Oil

Russia’s rapeseed oil exports rose significantly, driven mainly by China (75% of volume) and increasing flows to Tunisia.

Ukraine’s exports also increased, primarily to the EU, which remains the dominant market.

Rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill strengthened to €1,100/mt, with steady recovery driven by strong EU demand and limited Black Sea supply — suggesting continued support in the near term.

Canada’s exports fell by more than half in Sep–Oct 2025 after Chinese tariffs shut down the main destination. A larger 2025 crop and record domestic crushing kept canola oil exports stable, while new export capacity improved logistics. Australia’s exports remained stable but relatively small.

🌐 Market outlook

Overall, the global vegoil markets stay under pressure from weak Chinese demand, while steady EU buying and low Indian stocks provide key support. Market direction in the coming months will hinge on China’s demand recovery and India’s import pace.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!