End of March

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

Sorry for the delay in reports .

Typically, during the month of Ramadan, the supply and demand stabilize. However, this March we saw a surge in activity from India, which drove the market up, maintaining current offer levels for SFO AM at $970 and $980 TDD, CIF India last week. Chinese buyers are also increasing their purchasing levels, with CSFO trading at above $900 and CHOSO at $1050. Meanwhile, palm oil prices in major destinations have been higher than SFO and SBO for the last month.

In February, Ukrainian exports CSFO exceeded 600k tons .

Meanwhile, Russia's oil production remains high until the end of the season, with monthly supplies to the world market expected to be around 500k tons. OilWorld forecasts suggest a reduction in sunflower processing in Ukraine and Argentina in the second half of the season, potentially leading to decreased export volumes. Despite this, sunflower oil remains undervalued compared to other oils and continues to be the most attractive . Ukraine's port prices are in the range of $790-800 CPT .

Refined oil premiums continue to remain low, at $100 or lower, due to reduced demand and export difficulties. Red Sea have significantly increased Transit time . 

According to reports from the Financial Times, the European Commission plans to introduce duties on grain import from Russia and Belarus in the coming days, amounting to €95 per ton. 

Fuel prices are on the rise, with gasoline and diesel fuel costs increasing by 7% due to a portion of Russia's refinery capacity being out of operation. As we enter a period of high consumption, prices are expected to increase further. Recent attacks on Ukraine's gas and electric supply have led to a rise in natural gas prices. Although electricity has been selectively turned off in many regions of Ukraine, affecting civilians more than industry for now, Ukraine's dependence on the EU for gas and electricity could lead to price increases in the near future.

The global soybean market is expected to reach record production volumes this season, according to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The projected oilseed harvest is 396.85M tons – 7% higher than the previous peak in the 2020/21 agricultural year. China interest in oil buying is returning, with new contracts for rapeseed oil and CSFO.

The increase in palm oil price has put pressure on the vegetable oil market, slowing the demand for palm oil and increasing the demand for SFO and SBO. Overall, the vegetable oil market appears to need stability as SFO crosses the power supply month, and volumes need to be regulated.

Russia's announcement of a zero-duty export for April may impact SBO, which will mostly depend on Argentina's supply and demand for biodiesel. 

Palm oil production and export has to be a focal point, especially as most parts of the world head into the summer season, and EU Horeca activity is expected to increase.

Thank you for your attention.