End of July

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market. 

🌻Sunflower

Ukraine’s sunflower crop outlook for 2025 is weak, with the forecast cut to 13.6–13.7 MMT — just 7% above last year’s low. Key challenges include spring dryness, heat, and hail across major growing regions. Some fields have been abandoned or shifted to winter crops. Crushers are managing negative margins by reducing output, while SFO availability remains limited as farmers continue to hold back seeds.

Processing capacity this season is being utilized at just 63.1%, according to Ukroliyaprom. Crush margins have remained negative throughout, and higher utilization has not been possible due to rapeseed and soybeans being mostly exported. New crop seed prices are expected to stay high in September–October as pressure builds. The current CPT Odessa price stands at $1,150, while RBD SFO is available at $1,260 FCA.

In Russia, SFO and sunseed meal export duties have been suspended until 31 August 2025. Previously, the duties were ₽4,739.3 ($60) per ton for sun oil and ₽1,054.4 ($17.4) per ton for meal. The Russian ruble (USD/RUB) has weakened by 4% over the past few days, which could mark the beginning of a broader trend. CSFO prices are steady or rising, supported by firm global sunflower seed prices and strong Russian crushers keeping offers firm. Mersin offers are around $1,200, with new crop offers to India at $1,230.

India’s SFO imports are up 17.75% in June, with festival demand expected to support the prices. India’s total edible oil imports are forecast to reach 16 M tons in 2024/25.

🌱 Soybean Oil Market:

SBO offers to India as of 28 July 2025 are as follows:

– July: 480 BOQ @ $1,217

– August: 520 BOQ @ $1,207

– September: 620 BOQ @ $1,180

SBO shows positive momentum, though the market looks overbought, so a pullback is possible. Good weather in the US and Argentina is expected to add pressure ahead of harvest.

SBO exports from China are rising sharply, mainly to India and regional markets. Domestic supply is easing, and international prices are firming, supporting stronger Q4 demand. The Chinese FOB price is currently around $1,100/ton (South China port). Crushing volumes remain strong (~2 M tons/week), and SBO stocks have surpassed 1M tons. Demand is expected to improve in August. Meanwhile, mid-to-late July trade talks between China and the US may shape market sentiment. China is set to import 30 k tons of lower-cost Argentine soybean meal in September, diversifying supply amid ongoing US tensions. Domestic surplus persists.

Argentina has permanently lowered export taxes for corn and sorghum (from 12% to 9.5%), sunflower (from 7.5% to 5.5%), soybeans (from 33% to 26%), and soybean byproducts (from 31% to 24%). FOB prices stand at $1,085/ton for soybeans and $1,110/ton for sunflower.

Ukraine’s soybean crush is increasing, supported by positive margins, unlike the ongoing negative margin for SFS. This is attracting new players to the soy crush segment, and more offers from Ukraine can be expected in the new season.

🌿Rapeseed Market:

Global rapeseed production is down by 4.4 MMT, including a 3 MMT drop in the EU and 1 MMT in Ukraine. On the other hand, Canadian rapeseed exports are up 27% YoY, exceeding the forecasts at 8.5 M tons by June 1. Domestic crushing is also on the rise and is expected to reach a record 11.5 M tons in 2024–25. Strong export and crush demand will reduce inventory to just 1.3 M tons — the lowest in 12 years.

In Ukraine, harvest progress as of 24 July shows 1.1 M tons harvested out of a projected 3.1 M tons. Ukraine remains a strongly export-oriented rapeseed producer, and in 2024/25, 3.1 MMT of rapeseed was exported. However, crushed rapeseed stock at factories remains low, and supplies are limited. The CPT seed price in central Ukraine is ₴23,500 including VAT. Rapeseed prices are expected to remain high amid continued tight supply and firm demand.

🌎 Macro News:

The US is strengthening trade ties with Asia, which could shift global agri trade flows. Turkey has cut interest rates, weakening the lira and making exports cheaper. A UK–India free trade agreement is boosting bilateral trade. Meanwhile, the US is imposing a unified 15% tariff on all EU imports, including cars and pharmaceuticals. While this move strengthens US leverage, it raises concerns in Europe about economic fallout.

🌦️Weather Outlook

India is experiencing a strong monsoon, while Southeast Asia is seeing good rainfall — favorable for upcoming rice, palm, and sugar harvests.

That’s all for now. Thanks for your attention.