End of August

Hello everyone, 

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the global veg oil market.

🇺🇦 Ukraine

The upcoming European cyclones will bring cool weather and rain to Ukraine, improving conditions for sunflowers, as well as corn, soybeans, and rapeseed on the right bank of the Dnipro River. 

Meanwhile, eastern regions remain dry, capping crop potential. Next week looks dry too, with moderate temps supporting crop filling (except in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad).

Trial sunflower harvests in Zaporizhzhya show very poor yields – only 300–575kg/ha vs. the normal 2t/ha. Initial harvests in Odesa, Dnipro, and Poltava have brought in 13.2k tonnes from 15.4k ha (0.3%), versus 419k tonnes from 256k ha (5%) last year by the same date. Current yield is 0.86t/ha (vs 1.63t/ha in 2024). The country’s sunflower crop may end below 12M tonnes. 

📌 CPT Odessa/Yuzhny prices:

– SFO: $1,205 Sep, $1,200 Oct

– RBD SFO: $1,340 pmt

– Soybean oil: $1,095

– Soymeal: $305

– SFO Oct–Nov: $1,280 – 1,300 CIF India 

EU 6 ports:

– Oct: $1,390 vs …

– OND: $1,355 vs $1,330

– JFM: $1,285 vs $1,270

🌻 Sunflower Oil & Seeds: Global

In Turkey, SFO traded at $1,273 for Oct 1–25 shipment. Import duties were cut for crude SFO (36%→30%) and SFS (20%→12%). Egypt offers SFO at $1,280 CIF. 

Russia to raise September export duties for SFO (₽5,746.2 or ~$71.8 per tonne) and meal (₽1,119.4 or ~$13.91 per tonne). Meanwhile, exports remain strong, with SFS ending stocks estimated at 200k tonnes. Total SFO exports in 2024/25 are at ~5M tonnes (vs. 4.7M tonnes in 2023/24).

Price trend:

– 2022: spike to 42.4 → drop to 22.2

– 2023: volatile 20.9–27.8

– 2024: stable 36–38

– 2025F: traders in South already bidding 40

🌱 Global Soybean Oil & Meal

Argentina soy oil FOB peaked at $1,155 per tonne (Aug 22), then eased to ~$1,120 by Aug 26–27. Forward Sep–Nov offers remain at $1,120–1,130 per tonne – firm demand, limited upside.

The EPA confirmed 2022 and earlier RINs can’t be used for 2024 compliance, limiting market impact. Market moves mainly on sentiment, with Chicago seen softening. Brazil raises biodiesel blend to 15%. Argentina’s good harvest will stabilize prices, with stronger H2 demand.

Russia’s 2025/26 soybean crop may hit ~8.4M tonnes.

– Ukraine DAP Izov (Poland border): $1,180

– Egypt local CDSBO: $1,080–1,100

🌸 Rapeseed / Canola

Canada to expand crush capacity by 2M tonnes in 2025/26 → to 15M tonnes total. July crush reached 969k tonnes – the highest in 4 months. Total 2024/25 crush is at a record 11.4M tonnes (vs. 11M last year). Canadian canola is firmer on the stronger US SBO.

– EU rapeseed price is flat: €475.5 per tonne

– Russia harvest area is lagging behind at 638k ha (down 18.5% YoY), with output lower by 402k tonnes and yields down to 23.8c/ha (vs. 24.5c/ha in 2024)

– Ukraine harvest: 3.16 M t (–20% YoY), yield 2.47 t/ha (–12%). Frost and drought cut output, driving competition between exporters and processors → firmer prices.

🌴 Palm Oil

Malaysian palm oil slipped, tracking weaker soyoil. Buyers are advised to avoid bulk purchases until end-August stocks and early September export data are released.

Thank you for your attention.