Early October

Dear community, 

Please enjoy a fresh update from the food oil market. 

Sunflower Oil and Seeds

• Ukraine

CPT port price for crude sunflower oil reached $1,010 in Odessa. Refined bottled SFO is offered at $1.20 per liter, while FCA prices start at $1,100 per ton.

Sunflower seed prices in Ukraine are at their highest since March 2022, trading at ~$582-631 per ton (CPT) and even more for larger volumes and better oil content. In August, local seed processing dropped to 640k tons – the lowest in two years and 37% down over a month, with issues of seed availability and crushing margins worsening the situation.

Meanwhile, as of September 26, the harvest has been completed by 66% and yielded 6.7 million MT (USDA’s total forecast is 12.5 million MT). Farmers are holding onto up to 50% of the harvested crops, which could impact future supply.

• Russia

Russia exported 3.8 million tons of sunflower oil in the first eight months of 2024 – up 28% YoY – with India (35%), Turkey (14%), and China (13%) as the main importers.

Agroexport forecasts the country’s SFO exports to reach 5.7 million tons by 2030.

Meanwhile, the export duty on sunflower oil remains at zero for the sixteenth consecutive month.

• Global Market

Global sunflower oil consumption is expected to drop by 2% in the 2024-25 marketing year, following a record-high consumption of 20.7 MMT in 2023-24. Major markets such as India, China, Iran, and the EU are driving this decline.

Current SFO export prices are as follows: 

• Six ports (FOB): Nov-Dec $1135 vs $1105; JFM $1150 vs $1115; AMJ $1165 vs $1120. 

• Ukraine’s offer to India (CIF): Oct-Nov $1130; 

• Russia’s offer to India (CIF): Sep-Oct-Nov $1135. 

• Russia’s offer Izmir (CIF): Oct $1045.

Palm Oil

Palm oil prices are under pressure due to the rise in crude oil prices, with expectations that crude could exceed $80 in the coming days.

Iran’s ports are emerging as a key hub for palm oil imports, servicing countries like Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan, while primarily handling oil from Malaysia.

Soybeans

China’s soybean imports from the U.S. increased by 70% in August due to favorable prices, while Brazilian imports from the U.S. saw a 12% increase. However, China’s soybean surplus is growing due to weakening meat and dairy consumption amidst an economic slowdown.

China’s increased imports come amid concerns about escalating trade tensions with the U.S.

Corn

Russia has dramatically increased its corn export duty, nearly tenfold, in response to lower crop forecasts caused by extreme weather conditions.

General Outlook

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks nine major agricultural products, is seeing a monthly increase of nearly 7% – the highest rise since early 2022. 

The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is contributing to rising prices, especially for palm oil, which is following the surge in crude oil and other edible oils. The market is in a precarious state and physical traders are staying cautious while futures traders are more active.

That’s all the news for now. Feel free to comment or inquire, I will be glad to assist. 

Regards,