Early November

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

🌻 Sunflower Market

Ukraine’s sunflower harvest is 90% complete (4.61M ha out of 4.71M ha). Total production reached 8.73M — ~10% below last year’s 9.68M. While yields improved slightly to 1.89 t/ha, they are still roughly 8% lower y/y.

In Russia, about 82% of the area (~10M ha) was harvested by now, producing 15.1M tons so far. The 2025/26 crop is now estimated at 17.2–17.5M tons, down from 19M earlier, mainly due to dryness in southern regions.

For Russia-origin SFO, offers ended last week at around $1,295/ton CIF Mersin, but Turkish buyers held off, now requesting $1,280. The December export duty is expected to reach $110/ton (vs. $84 currently). Despite this, SFS prices climb up slightly.

Ukraine-origin SFO (CPT YZN) trades at ~ $1,230/ton, growing slightly on Friday. Egypt CSFO ex-tank prices stand near $1,400/ton.

Other benchmarks:

– Ukraine RBD – $1,380 exw

– Russia CIF – $1,400 (Jeddah/Aqaba)

– India / Jebel Ali / Sohar – $1,480–1,500

🌱 Soy Complex

Markets were lifted by rumors of an urgent Federal Reserve meeting on possible December rate cuts — a bullish signal for commodities.

Lower rates and a weaker USD typically support agri and veg oil demand, including soy oil.

A key short-term driver remains the EPA’s pending decision on 16 Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) petitions under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS):

– If rejected → refineries must buy more biofuel → bullish for soy oil

– If approved → less biodiesel demand → bearish

If the Fed eases policy and EPA keeps RFS strict, soy oil could gain 2–4% short term.

Meanwhile, India’s October edible oil imports fell ~20% MoM, with palm oil down 27% and soy oil down 17% — tightening near-term supply.

Short-term bias: firm to sideways-up, supported by low arrivals and weaker imports, though capped by cheaper Argentina/Brazil offers.

China’s latest data shows soy and rapeseed oil stocks down, palm oil up — bullish for soft oils, neutral for palm.

🌾 Rapeseed / Canola

As of November 2025, the global rapeseed and canola market remains mixed.

EU rapeseed area for 2026/27 is projected at a 16-year high (+7% y/y), pressuring prices near $1,280–1,295 FOB.

Same time, EU imports are down 47% amid weaker supply from Ukraine and Australia, while India expands record plantings on strong Chinese meal demand.

The Canada–China dispute continues, keeping tariffs in place until March 2026.

Overall sentiment: short-term bearish due to supply growth, but medium-term support expected from limited trade flows and solid Asian demand.

🌴 Palm Oil

For Week 46 (2025), CPO remains bearish to range-bound, with prices seen between MYR 4,045–4,150.

High stocks and weak competitiveness weigh on the market.

A break below 4,060 may lead to 3,990, while upside above 4,220–4,245 looks unlikely without new fundamentals.

📈 Market Summary

Overall, strong demand is expected for vegetable oils through November–January, though buyer coverage remains limited. Supply and logistical constraints at origins continue to support a firm to bullish tone across the complex.

That’s all the news for now. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned for the next update!