Early January

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

The New Year holidays have passed and business has re-started.

The main focus is still on the Red Sea crisis. Since November, Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched more than 20 attacks on container ships using drones, significantly impacting business in and out. We see 90-day transits from Ukraine to India's ports. 

About 95% of the containerships that normally transit the Red Sea and Suez Canal are rerouting around the South Africa.

Ukraine exported 672k tons of SFO in Dec 2023. The market has been slow since Jan 2, while seed price is going up to UAH15,000+ for 50% oil content. Normally, this time of year farmer selling slows down. UKR SFO trades at $880 vs $860 CIF Mersin Jan-Feb, while CPT Izmail level is $750-760. 

Chinese bid at $850-880 CIF, Egypt at $840 vs 880. Refined oil offered at $850-860 PMT, whereas bottled oil is offered at $0,90 for 1l and $4.35 for 5l FCA basis. 

Ukraine's refined sunflower oil exports are expected to drop by 8.6% in the 2023/2024 . The premium for refined oil continues to be CSFO + $120 + 4% losses. 

Russ oil offer for India currently starts to increase due to delays, which fuels local markets. $900-925 January export tax continues to be 0 for SFO and most probably will continue to be 0 for Feb. The freight situation will influence Chinese exports, where freight before the crisis was equal to Turkey and crushers take advantage of it. Right now, the route from the Russian Black Sea to China without Suez takes 55 days instead of 31. SBO black sea is out of the picture now with the coming crop in South America. Ukraine's CDSBO ex level is $750 -760. 

South America has continued to put pressure on the supply side of oil and , dragging down the markets. The pressure on the vegetable oil supply is relatively high, and it is expected to operate with weak fluctuations.

The demand for soybeans in China will fall against the background of the upcoming reduction in pork supplies. 

Chinese ask for Ukraine's RSO at $850 CIF, the same level as the CSFO. 

Currently, rapeseed oil stocks are high, and downstream demand is showing a sluggish situation during the peak season in China.

According to Oil World rapeseed processing in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2023 reached 6.38 million tons – a record . 

Australia’s canola flourished in the past 25 years, going from producing 2.5Mt in 1999 to a record 8.3Mt in 2022-23. Canada, produced 18.17Mt of canola in 2022 and crushed 9.96Mt in 2022-23. Australia's crushing capacity is not more than 10% for available seeds, which makes The European Union a major destination for Australian canola, with the region importing about 3.4Mt of seed in 2022. India expects a record crop for mustard set to hit 13Mt. The pressure of the coming crops will affect prices in the near future and the Red Sea crisis will be noticeable in the price of physical goods as more delay in supply will fuel panic buying and affect the prices.

Thank you for your attention.