Early April

Dear ladies and gentlemen, 

The Ukrainian Grain Association estimates the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in 2024 at 76.1M tons, – 7.9% lower YoY. 

Meanwhile, sunflower harvest in Ukraine for 2024 is projected to reach 13.7M tons (down from 14.2M tons in 2023). Potential exports could reach up to 250k tons (compared to 400pk tons in the current season), while sunflower processing into oil could reach almost 13.6M tons, slightly above this season's figure.

Ukraine's rapeseed harvest in 2024 is expected to reach 4.2M tons . Soybean harvest in 2024 is predicted to reach 5.5M tons (4.9M tons in 2023), with potential exports in 2024/2025 MY reaching 4M tons (compared to an expected 3.3M tons in the current season).

In Russia, a decrease in the harvest of grain and oilseeds is anticipated in 2024 compared to 2023, although it will remain relatively high. 

Here are the estimates for Russia in 2024: 

• Total grain harvest – 134.2M tons (142.1M tons in 2023). 

• Wheat harvest – 87.3M tons (90.3M tons in 2023).

• Wheat exports – 46.4M tons (50.4M tons in 2023). 

• Sunflower production – 15.6M tons (16.7 million in 2023)

• Soybean production – 5.9M tons (6.5M tons in 2023) 

• Rapeseed harvest – 4.3M tons, the same as in 2023. 

The (IGC) expects an increase in the global sunflower harvest in the 2024/25 MY – at about 58.5M tons, compared to 57.9M tons a year earlier.

Ukraine's customs statistics indicate that the country's SFO exports in March 2024 amounted to 608k tons, 16% higher than in March 2023. Sunflower oil remains the cheapest oil compared to palm and soy oil, continuing to attract oil traders and manufacturers. 

India's SFO imports have reached the second-highest level as palm oil retreats, surging 51% in a month and amounting to 448,000 metric tons, according to estimates from dealers. CPO imports in India are offered at about $1,020 a metric ton, for May delivery, whileSBO and SFO are offered around $1,000 and $960 a ton, respectively. 

Ukraine's SFO is offered at $983 Apr, $975-978 May, CIF India, while Russian SFO is offered at $975 May-June, CIF India. Ukraine's port price is $800 buying bid with limited sellers, and refined oil ex-factory is at $900. 

Overall, the demand for SFO is increasing, putting pressure on sellers and farmers, which ultimately slows down sales. 

China's CIF rapeseed oil price seen at $940 PMT. As the world emerges from holidays, including Easter and soon Ramadan, Argentina shows very good yields, while Brazil's exports are declining. Argentina is accelerating its exports with a discount compared to Brazil, expecting to export more in the coming days. There is a good crushing margin in Argentina, which is a strong point for SBO. 

 Logistics continues to be a significant factor for the Black Sea region, particularly regarding containers, where freight and road logistics are improving but the availability of free containers is becoming a problem. 

Thank you for your attention.