End of January

Hello everyone,

Please enjoy a fresh overview of the food oil market.

Ukraine Exports

In January, over 60% of Ukraine’s vegetable oil exports were shipped through ports, with a total of 90.8k tons exported in the first 22 days (11% up from December 2024). While logistics and freight costs to major destinations have dropped, cash exports remain slow, with large amounts of oil under tax and police custody. Like that, only 10% of crude sunflower oil (CSFO) exports were cash transactions in November, dropping to just 2% in December. The number of exporters has also decreased.

Sunflower Oil & Seed

Ukraine’s top sunflower oil producer, Kernel, halted operations at one of its plants in January 2025 due to sunflower seed shortage. Notably, the company makes up 5-10% of global CSFO exports. The supply situation is tight, with the lowest sunflower coverage in decades.

• Seed prices have reached UAH 27,000 (~$646.50) per MT DAP factory.

• Sunflower oil prices dropped from $1,120 to $1,100 per MT CPT.

• RBD oil prices vary around $1,200 to $1,250.

• Bottled oil FCA costs $1.28 per liter.

Refined oil premium surpassed above $100 due to higher electricity and gas costs.

Mersin offers stood at $1,155 vs. $1,145. India’s prices are lower, between $1,150-$1,170. Ukraine's exports to India are complicated due to producers' limited supply. Meanwhile, Russia's cargo shipments to India also face restrictions due to emerging payment issues. Sunflower oil trade across six EU ports is priced at $1,200 AMJ.

Russia’s domestic market prices:

• RUB 100-115 (~$1.02-1.17) per kg for RBD oil

• RUB 95-105 (~$0.97-1.07) per kg for CSFO (excluding VAT).

The purchase level is around RUB 81 (~$0.83) per kg, with the export duty of $180 per MT limiting offerings.

Soybean and Oilseeds

Soybean prices in Ukraine rise due to limited supply and higher demand at ports, ranging around UAH 16,800-17,000 (~$402-407) per MT CPT.

• Soybeans: $380-$390 (Odessa and Danube)

• Soybean oil FCA: $1,010

• Soybean oil DAP Poland border: $1,040.

Supply and demand for soybean oil are growing, with crude degummed soybean oil CPT Odessa at $1,050. Major crushers are showing interest in shifting to soybean oil due to sunflower and rapeseed oil shortages.

EU Oilseeds and Vegetable Oil Trade

Soybean imports to the EU reached 8.03M tonnes in the 2024/25 season – up 13% from last year. Of that, rapeseed amounted to 3.57M tonnes (up 8% YoY), and soybean meal – to 11.26M tonnes (up 30%).

Canola & North American Policies

Changes in U.S. tax policy may negatively impact Canadian canola exports, especially the revision of biofuel tax incentives and a possible 25% duty on all Canadian imports. Australian canola bids already dropped by $10-$15 from last week. Euronext August rapeseed futures fell 0.9% but quickly recovered.

Market Outlook

Overall, the vegetable oil market is under pressure, with supply exceeding demand and more sellers than buyers. The Chinese Lunar New Year holiday is expected to slow trade temporarily, but demand may pick up post-holiday. Key concerns include U.S. biodiesel regulations, crude oil prices, and ongoing geopolitical instability in Ukraine and Russia.

Thank you all for your attention! As always, feel free to reach out for any comments or questions.