End of February

Dear ladies and gentlemen,

February was busy as I visited the Kazakh Oil, Gulf Food, and POC 2025 events. More updates on that next week, and now a fresh market overiew:

✅ Sunflower Oil & Seeds

Sunflowers prices in Ukraine continue to rise due to increasing oil prices in ports. Unexpectedly, seed prices remain at record highs.

Current price indications:

• DAP Ukraine factory: ₴30,000 PMT

• CPT Odessa: $1,150 PMT

• RBD SFO FCA: $1,250 PMT

• Bottled oil 1L FCA: $1.30 PMT

Farmers' seed stock remains high, and crusher coverage is at record levels, forcing many factories to halt operations. Ukraine’s crush margin is negative $5-10 PMT.

Reduced availability of high-oleic sunflower oil from Ukraine is increasing its premium.

- DAP Ukraine factory: ₴35,000 PMT

- China HOSO bid CIF: $1,500 PMT

- Ukraine FCA level HOSO crude: $1,500 PMT

- Ukraine RBD HOSO: $1,650 PMT

Russia’s sunflower oil export duty for March is set at ₽9,333 per tonne (~$105.81). April duty is expected to rise, benchmarked to February 2025 prices. On February 25, Bank of Russia lowered the official dollar exchange rate to 86 rubles. Russian trade is fixed in rubles, and exporters are pressured by the strong ruble, leading to significant losses. Meanwhile, Russia’s crush margin mirrors that of Ukraine.

- India traded Russian and Ukrainian CSFO at $1,230-1,240 PMT

- Russia’s sunflower seed stock is at 1M+ SFS carry forward

- China’s bid for CSFO increased to $1,190, supporting exports from Kazakhstan and Altai

✅ Rapeseed Oil

27% of global veg oil production goes to biodiesel, a bearish factor given Trump’s new policies.

Canada’s canola situation remains uncertain but could pressure the market with strong seed and oil flows to the EU and China. Rapeseed is currently the cheapest veg oil. The USA has limited canola in its biodiesel program.

China demand is low, trading at $1,030 PMT (Russia origin). Bulgarian crushers may see demand growth. Moldova and Romania crush levels remain low.

RSO FDM:

• Mar-25: €1,105/1,080

• Apr-25: €1,100/1,080

• SFO 6 Ports, FOB:

• Mar: $1,240/1,210

• Apr: $1,235/1,215

With this trend, end-users and HORECA may shift toward rapeseed. July marks the new rapeseed season in Ukraine and the Black Sea. The current season began with high rapeseed exports due to an early harvest. In the first half of 2024/25, 86% of the export potential was realized. Total rapeseed exports: 2.8M tons (+5.5% YoY). Domestic rapeseed processing will nearly halve

Rapeseed Processing Exports are as follows:

• Rapeseed oil: down 46% YoY

• Rapeseed meal: down 37% YoY

✅ Soybean Oil

Short-term sentiment: Stable with a slight decline due to abundant global supply and tariff threats.

Long-term sentiment: Slightly bearish due to slower biodiesel demand and looming US tariff threats.

Soy oil prices for March-April are increasing:

• CIF India: $1,163 (March), $1,132 (April), $1,049 (MJJ)

• Argentina’s premium is rising

• Meals have become a bullish factor, with record-low prices

• SBO is finding strong demand in India and GCC

• Ukraine’s SBO export price: $1,060+ (limited to the EU)

• Russia’s SBO traded at $1,140 (Middle East)

Experts predict tight supply and high prices until the end of March.

✅ Palm Oil

Palm stock in Malaysia is low, strengthening the market. India’s monthly palm demand has dropped below the combined soy and sun volume, importing less than 600K in March. Indonesia may increase its biodiesel mandate from 40% to 50%.

🌍 Global Oil Market & Trade

Bank of America forecasts Brent oil to average $75 per barrel in 2025 and $73 in 2026, citing low reserves, balanced demand-supply, and OPEC’s 5M barrels/day free capacity. India may increase duties, narrowing the gap between rapeseed, sunflower, and soy (currently ~20%), which could benefit high-stock rapeseed oil origins. Rapeseed meal prices are under pressure in the EU, with Russian-origin meal offers at €160, with limited demand.

Overall, the global veg oil supply-demand balance is stable, limiting downtrend potential this season.