End of December

Dear ladies and gentlemen, 

We are approaching the end of 2023. 

The war in the middle of Europe is continuing, as Russia conducted its largest air attack on Ukraine this year. 

The global focus shifted to Yemen and the Houthis. Major shipping lines are stopping their fleets on anchor and rerouting through Africa. Maersk restarted movement through Suez, other lines followed suit. 

Container freight and overall logistics already increased by over $50-$100/MT, depending on the destination .

Overall, logistic factors become more valuable and highly influential on business. 

On 28.12, a civilian vessel under the flag of Panama was detonated by an enemy sea mine in the Black Sea. The bulker was on its way to one of the Danube ports to be loaded with grain.

The Polish government is getting closer to solving the problem of the blockade of several border crossings with Ukraine by Polish carriers, as stated by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. 

Border blockade: Ukrainian budget losses exceed UAH 9Bn. 

The veg oil market in Ukraine is quiet due to holidays. 

Port prices:

• Izmail CPT – $750 $770

• Yuzne – $730 

• CIF Mersin – $850 $860

• FCA Refine Oil – $830-850 

The average selling rate of the dollar UAH 37.80, and the euro UAH 41.96, as the market expects future UAH devaluation. SFS price cross UAH15000 for 50% oil .

SFO production is growing in Russia, with 632.3k tons of unrefined SFO and its fractions produced last month .

Russia made a huge competition on India's market, with India's offers at $900-$915, Chinese at $870-$890, and Egypt's at $860-$870. As for January, Russia's SFO export tax continues to be 0. 

Rapeseed and rapeseed oil remain stable. Supply seems to exceed demand. Australia started to supply to the EU, which has somewhat affected the market. Ukraine's rapeseed end stock is minimum, at 0.5M MT due to this season's export and local crush. Ukraine offers FOB at $850 - $880, whereas rapeseed meal FCA is offered at $180-$200.

China's soybean oil market in 2023 was not good, with a sharp decline in the first five months and prices continuing to decline by over 25%, dropping to 7,088 RMB/ton. 

India's CIF price for beans has come to the SFO level and CBOT is under pressure .

Meanwhile, Brazil faces problems in due to the hot season. The overall export is expected to decline, which is affecting the futures. 

Overall, we see a tight supply for coming months where if demand increases the price will start to rise. Origin refinery will have a good position on time for the red sea crisis. Palm oil suppliers will focus on more aggressive offers to the Middle East, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh to cover sales.

Hopefully, the new year will bring some ease and more stability to all our lives. Enjoy the holidays, and stay tuned for the new update!